Better Predicting Market Performance
Billur Akdeniz Talay, a marketing strategy scholar, uses empirical modeling to solve managerial problems in the areas of new product development, market signaling and international marketing.
Her most recent research looks at the predictive power of stock market responses to pre-announcement events for the future performance of new car models.
“Previously, research on new product pre-announcement has looked at its impact on shareholder value as a possible indicator of the product’s future performance. We’ve gone beyond this,” Akdeniz said.
“Previously, research on new product pre-announcement has looked at its impact on shareholder value as a possible indicator of the product’s future performance,” Akdeniz said. “We’ve gone beyond this relationship by first looking at the impact of a pre-announcement signal on firm value and then actually examining how well this value predicts post-launch new product performance. No studies have closed the loop like this before.”
In addition to opening a new avenue of inquiry at the interface of marketing and finance, the research findings offer substantial evidence that stock market reactions following pre-announcements can predict future product performance, albeit with five moderating conditions:
• Greater specificity of new product information earns greater trust.
• Pre-announcement impact requires sustained advertising to stick.
• Brands with strong reputations enjoy greater success.
• Hyper-competitive areas enjoy less success than quieter ones.
• Gradual innovations perform better than radical innovations.
Akdeniz’s work has earned her recognition as a Richard Rosenthal Early Career Fellow in 2014, as well as invitations to serve as the marketing strategy track chair at the 2017 Academy of Marketing Science Conference and the global new product development and innovation track chair at the 2017 American Marketing Association Global Marketing Conference.
Akdeniz also serves on the editorial board of Industrial Marketing Management, a leading journal in the field.