Rogelio Saenz, Dean, College of Public Policy, University of Texas at San Antonio and Carsey School Senior Fellow
Due, in part, to its aging population and net out-migration, there are more deaths than births among whites in California, but not in Texas. A recent study that I [Rogelio Saenz] conducted with my colleague, Kenneth M. Johnson at the University of New Hampshire, shows that California is a state where white deaths firmly outnumber white births, what demographers refer to as “natural decline.” California experienced natural decrease among whites in 13 of 14 years between 2001 and 2014. In 2014, there were 144,318 white births in California alongside 157,486 white deaths, translating to a natural decline of 13,168. In contrast, Texas whites have always had more births than deaths, what is referred to as “natural increase.” In 2014, there were 140,992 white births and 120,192 white deaths in Texas, netting a natural increase of 20,800. Only Utah, which has a youthful white population and high levels of fertility, had a higher level of natural increase (24,198) than Texas.
