UNH Survey Center
UNH Poll Finds Benson Pulling Away from GOP Field for NH Governor
July 8, 2002
DURHAM, N.H. ‚ Craig Benson has widened his lead over Gordon Humphrey in the race for the Republican gubernatorial nomination while Bruce Keough is threatening Humphrey for second place, according to the latest Granite State Poll conducted by the University of New Hampshire Survey Center. Mark Fernald and Bev Hollingworth are tied in their race for the Democratic nomination.
The Granite State Poll is sponsored by UNH. Six hundred fifty-eight (658) New Hampshire adults were interviewed between June 23 and July 1, 2002 (margin of sampling error, +/-4 percent). Included in this sample were 529 likely voters in the 2002 general election (margin of sampling error, +/-4 percent), 230 likely Republican primary voters (margin of sampling error, +/-6 percent), and 179 likely Democratic primary voters (margin of sampling error, +/-7 percent). For more detailed results and methodology, visit the Survey Center Web site at www.unh.edu/survey-center and click on Press Releases.
The race for New Hampshire governor is generating more interest entering the summer months. Candidates are heavily into the mass media advertising phase of their campaigns, and voters are paying more attention to the races.
Among Democrats, state Senator Bev Hollingworth of Hampton and state Senator
Mark Fernald of Sharon continue to run neck and neck for the nomination.
Currently, 32 percent of likely Democratic primary voters say they plan
to vote for Fernald, 31 percent plan to vote for Hollingworth, 12 percent
favor some other candidate, and 25 percent remain undecided. Caution must
be used when interpreting these figures as sample sizes for the likely
primary voter sub-samples are small.
The Granite State Poll also looked at potential match-ups in the November gubernatorial election to test the strength of the five candidates. In trial heats, Benson leads both Fernald and Hollingworth by about 10 percentage points (47% to 36% versus Hollingworth, 48% to 35% versus Fernald). Keough and Fernald are tied (37% to 37%) and Keough is slightly behind Hollingworth (40% to 35%). Humphrey fares worst among the potential Republican candidates and is currently trailing both Democratic candidates. Hollingworth currently holds a 49 percent to 38 percent lead over Humphrey and Fernald holds a 44 percent to 39 percent lead over Humphrey.
There are few demographic differences between supporters of both the Republican
and Democratic candidates among their respective primary electorates.
These findings are based on the most recent Granite State Poll conducted by the UNH Survey Center from June 23-July 1, 2002. A random sample of 658 New Hampshire adults was interviewed by telephone. In 95 of 100 cases, the statewide estimates will be accurate to plus or minus 3.8 percent. Results reported for other subgroups have potential for somewhat larger variation than those for the entire population. The margin of sampling error for likely November voters (N=529) is +/-4 percent. The margin of sampling error for likely Republican primary voters (N=230) is +/-6 percent and the margin of sampling error for likely Democratic primary voters (N=179) is +/-7 percent.
The data have been weighted to adjust for numbers of adults and telephone lines within households, respondent sex, region of the state and likelihood of voting in either the Sept. 10, primary or the November general election. In addition to potential sampling error, all surveys have other potential sources of nonsampling error including question order effects, question wording effects and nonresponse.