New Hampshire Center for Public Policy Studies
 
 
 
Class Size and Demographics:
What 3rd Grade Test Results Suggest About their Impact on Achievement in New Hampshire Public Schools
 
Author:
Douglas E. Hall
Executive Director
New Hampshire Center for Public Policy Studies
January 1998
 
In Association with:
Institute for Policy and Social Science Research
University of New Hampshire
 

Table of Contents

Acknowledgments
I. Introduction
II. Summary of Findings and Recommendations
III. Analysis and Findings
    A. Students by Class Size
    B. Results by Class Size
            Proficiency Level in Language Arts
            Proficiency Level in Mathematics
            Writing Score
            Multiple-Choice Language Arts Questions
            Multiple-Choice Mathematics Questions
            Open-Ended Language Arts Score
            Open-Ended Mathematics Score
    C. Factors Related to Achievement
            Measures of Income
            Free and Reduced Price School Lunches
            Average Two-Parent Family Income in the Community
            Education of Adults
            Households Renting Homes
    D. Comparing Strength of Relationships
    E. A Surprise: Schools with Higher Income Families Have Larger Class Sizes
IV. Cautions and Caveats
V. Implications for Policy and Recommendatons
    A. Making Class Size Decisions
    B. The Importance of Community Demographics
    C. Appropriate State Reporting for Improved State Accountability
    D. Devising a Formula for Distributing State Aid
VI. Future Research
VII. Literature Review and Bibliography
Appendix: The Smallest Class Size Group
    Special Education Students
    Small Schools and Small Communities
 

Acknowledgments

The Center is indebted for assistance provided in the conduct of this project by a number of individuals. A technical advisory committee was convened to assist in planning data analysis, reviewing preliminary results, suggesting additional analytic approaches, and reviewing the draft report. We are especially grateful to the five members of this committee: Paul Krohne, Executive Director of the New Hampshire School Boards Association; Philip Bell, Jr., Superintendent of SAU #46; Brian Wazlaw, science teacher at Exeter High School and nominee of the New Hampshire Education Association; John A. Gilbert, Principal of GeoInsight, a Londonderry firm, and alumnus of the Leadership New Hampshire program, and William Ewert, Assistant to the Commissioner of the New Hampshire Department of Education and director of the state's standardized assessment program.

In addition to his active role on the committee, Mr. Ewert also assisted in the early stages of the project by agreeing to modify the third grade assessment instruments so that class size information could be collected in May 1997 throughout the state. He regularly answered questions about the assessment process and resulting data. It was through his assistance that the Center obtained the data files from Advanced Systems in Measurement and Evaluation, Inc., the state's contractor for the assessment program. Ms. Cherie Dudley of Advanced Systems was helpful in providing information regarding the structure of the computer data files, codes used, scoring methods, and other factors.

Finally, we would like to thank the sixteen thousand third graders in New Hampshire's public schools who answered an additional question so that this study would be possible.
 

I. Introduction

In late 1996 the New Hampshire Center for Public Policy Studies decided to undertake this project to determine whether and to what degree there is a relationship between class size and achievement of students in New Hampshire public schools. At the time, it was believed the standardized tests of the New Hampshire Educational Improvement and Assessment Program (NHEIAP) given in the spring of 1996 could be used as a basis and that the investigation would take only a few months.

At the beginning of the project it became clear that the necessary class size information had not been collected during the 1996 testing. The Center and the NH Department of Education staff discussed how such an analysis could be performed. It was agreed to collect the necessary class size information during the tests that were to be administered in May 1997. While the intent at that time was to collect necessary class size data from both third and sixth grades, the actual data collection occurred only at the third grade level.

There were 16,419 third grade public school students at the time the tests were administered. Of these 15,799 took the Language Arts test and 15,944 took the mathematics test.

The tests were scored and analyzed by Advanced Systems in Measurement and Evaluation, Inc., a Dover, NH, firm under contract with the New Hampshire Department of Education. The Department released its annual report on the 1997 tests in October 1997. Shortly thereafter a database of results was provided to the Center by Advanced Systems.

The results contained in these files have been analyzed in conjunction with other readily available data and reports to form the basis for the findings and conclusions contained in this report.

As stated in RSA 193-C, the state law that established the NHEIAP, the purpose of the state tests and curriculum frameworks are "to establish what New Hampshire students should know and be able to do and to develop and implement effective methods for assessing that learning and its application so that local decisions about curriculum development and delivery can be made." We hope that this report contributes to that purpose.
 

II. Summary of Findings and Recommendations

The original intent of this study was to determine the effect of class size on achievement of students in New Hampshire public schools. The study then led to an examination of other factors and their influence on student achievement, as well.

Results of the study demonstrated that:

In contrast to class size, there were other factors that demonstrated a clear relationship with third grade achievement. These factors included: There were other findings from this study that were related to class size: Several conclusions and recommendations can be drawn from this study. Finally, the study points to several suggestions for future research.

III. Analysis and Findings

A. Students by Class Size

Class size is defined as the number of children taught in a self-contained classroom, usually by one teacher, throughout most of each school day. There are times in a school day or week where this number can vary; children can be broken into two groups, for example, with one group going to the school library while the other group works on art projects. Class size can also vary over the school year as children transfer in and out of a school. For purposes of this project we wanted to know the class size that best described each student's own experience.

Each student was asked on the student questionnaire that was part of the assessment process to answer the following question:

How many students are in your class? Ask your teacher if you are not sure.
    1. 1-14
    2. 15-20
    3. 21-24
    4. 25-27
    5. 28-30
    6. 31 or more
Table 1
Class Size
Number of Students
1-14 students
455 
15-20 students
4,204 
21-24 students
6,293 
25-27 students
3,312 
28-30 students
1,580 
31+ students
90 
not tested/spoiled
485
Total
16,419
 
The state sets a maximum class size of 30 students for third grade, so it is not surprising that so few students reported being in classes of more than 30. In fact, the number of students reporting a class size of 31 or more is so small that it is not possible to draw any conclusions about this group. For this reason this group is not included in the analysis that follows and we can draw no conclusions about these larger size classes.

The number of students in very small classes (1-14) is also small, only 2.8% of all third graders. The reasons for excluding the results for students in this smallest class size grouping are discussed in the Appendix: The Smallest Class Size Group.

Figure 1 displays the relative percentage of the students that fall into each category.
 

Figure 1
 

B. Results by Class Size

The NHEIAP assigns an overall proficiency level to each third grade student in language arts and a separate proficiency level in mathematics. These levels are based on answers to both multiple-choice and open-ended questions. In language arts, writing samples are also read and scored as part of the process of deriving an overall proficiency level.

Proficiency levels in both language arts and mathematics are Advanced, Proficient, Basic, and Novice.

We aggregated the students by class size and examined the results.
 

Proficiency Level in Language Arts

Table 2 and Figure 2 show the distribution of proficiency levels in language arts among each of the class size groupings.
 
Table 2
Language Arts Proficiency Level
Class 
Size
Advanced
Proficient
Basic
Novice
Not Tested
Total
15-20
4.4%
24.4%
43.6%
25.6%
2.5%
100.0%
21-24
4.8%
25.8%
43.2%
24.2%
2.0%
100.0%
25-27
5.2%
27.0%
40.1%
24.9%
2.8%
100.0%
28-30
4.9%
26.1%
43.7%
22.0%
3.4%
100.0%
All Students
4.5%
24.8%
41.6%
24.4%
4.6%
100.0%
 
Figure 2
 

There is only a very slight and inconsistent variation in results among class sizes of 15-30.

 Proficiency Level in Mathematics
Table 3 and Figure 3 show the distribution of proficiency levels in mathematics among each of the class size groupings.

 
Table 3
Mathematics Proficiency Level
Class 
Size
Advanced
Proficient
Basic
Novice
Not Tested
Total
15-20
11.8%
25.6%
44.5%
17.5%
0.6%
100.0%
21-24
13.1%
26.7%
42.7%
17.2%
0.3%
100.0%
25-27
15.3%
27.3%
39.9%
16.7%
0.8%
100.0%
28-30
17.3%
27.6%
40.8%
13.9%
0.4%
100.0%
All Students
13.1%
25.8%
41.5%
16.9%
2.7%
100.0%
 
 
Figure 3
 

The percentage of students at the Advanced and Proficient levels is somewhat greater in larger class sizes. This relationship is consistent, though small, across the groupings studied.
 
 Writing Score
As part of the language arts test, each student is asked to write a short essay of a few sentences. Two independent reviewers use the Annotated Holistic Scoring Method to score a student's writing sample. Each reviewer can assign an integer score from 1 to 6 with higher scores indicating better writing. Each student, therefore, receives a combined score of an integer in the range 2-12.

The average writing score of all third grade students in 1997 was 6.49. We investigated whether the average writing score differed by class size and what difference might exist between boys and girls. The results are shown in Table 4 and Figure 4.
 

Table 4
Class Size
Count of Students
Average Writing Score
Boys
Girls
Both Genders
15-20
4,204 
5.96
7.02
6.48
21-24
6,293 
6.06
7.02
6.53
25-27
3,312 
6.13
6.93
6.53
28-30
1,580 
6.10
6.95
6.53
All Students
16,419 
6.02
6.98
6.49
 
Figure 4
 
The variation in writing score among class sizes of 15 to 30 students is insignificant. However, there is a large difference between boys and girls that remains consistent across all class sizes. From this data, we can conclude that the average writing score of a class of third graders is related to the gender composition of the class but not to the number of students in the class.

Multiple-Choice Language Arts Questions

The language arts test included 35 multiple-choice questions that were common among all students. Four possible answers were provided to each question. Random guessing would, therefore, result in a 25.0% correct response rate. The actual average for all students was 73.9%.

Table 5 and Figure 5 display the percentage of correct answers by gender and by class size.
 

Table 5
% of Language Arts Multiple-Choice Questions Answered Correctly
Class Size
Girls
Boys
All Students
15-20
75.2%
72.2%
73.7%
21-24
75.5%
73.7%
74.6%
25-27
74.6%
72.6%
73.6%
28-30
75.9%
74.2%
75.1%
All Students
75.1%
72.8%
73.9%
 
Figure 5
 
The variation in scores among class sizes 15-30 is negligible and inconsistent. In contrast, however, there is a small but consistent difference between the scores of girls and those of boys. In all class sizes, the girls do better than the boys. The girls’ relative advantage is less pronounced in larger classes, declining from 3.0% in classes of 15-20 students to 1.7% in classes of 28-30 students. On average, girls had 2.3% more correct answers than boys.

Multiple-Choice Mathematics Questions

The mathematics test included 32 multiple-choice questions that were common among all students. As with the language arts tests, four possible answers were provided to each question. The actual average for all students was 72.7%.

Table 6 and Figure 6 display the percentage of correct answers by gender and by class size.
 

Table 6
% of Mathematics Multiple-Choice Questions Answered Correctly
Class Size
Girls
Boys
All Students
15-20
71.5%
72.3%
71.9%
21-24
72.0%
73.8%
72.9%
25-27
72.3%
74.3%
73.3%
28-30
73.8%
75.8%
74.8%
All Students
72.0%
73.5%
72.7%
 
In all class sizes, boys do slightly better, on average, than girls. Both genders exhibit slightly higher scores in the larger classes. This effect is slightly more pronounced among the boys than the girls.

On average, boys had 1.5% more correct answers than girls. This is a smaller difference than the opposite gender difference in language arts identified above.

Figure 6
 

Open-Ended Language Arts Score

In addition to the multiple-choice questions, each student was asked to respond by writing responses to three open-ended questions. The response of each student to each question was reviewed and scored as an integer from 0 to 4 based on established criteria. For each student the sum of scores on all three questions was, therefore, an integer from 0 to 12. The average score for all third grade students was 6.65.

We investigated whether the average score of students in different size classes differed in any consistent or significant manner. Table 7 and Figure 7 display the results.
 

Table 7
Language Arts Open-Ended Scores
Class Size
Boys 
Girls
Both Genders
15-20
6.45
6.72
6.58
21-24
6.62
6.75
6.68
25-27
6.65
6.77
6.71
28-30
6.65
6.77
6.71
All Students
6.57
6.73
6.65
 
While there was no appreciable difference in results across class sizes 21-30, there was a marginally poorer result in classes of size 15-20, almost all of which is attributable to the boys. In all class sizes the girls had higher averages than the boys, similar to the situation with regard to the multiple choice language arts questions.
 
Figure 7
 
The results among the open-ended questions are consistent with the results in the other two components of the language arts assessment, the writing score and the multiple-choice questions.
 

Open-Ended Mathematics Score

The third grade mathematics assessment also contained three open-ended questions in addition to the multiple-choice questions. Students were to show how they arrived at their answers. As with the language arts open-ended questions, the response of each student to each question was reviewed and scored as an integer from 0 to 4, resulting in a total score in the range of 0 to 12. The average score for all third grade students was 5.02.

Table 8 and Figure 8 display the differences we found in the average score of students in different size classes and gender.
 

Table 8
Mathematics Open-Ended Scores
Class Size
Boys 
Girls
Both Genders
15-20
4.83
5.00
4.91
21-24
4.96
4.96
4.96
25-27
5.12
5.26
5.19
28-30
5.37
5.52
5.44
All Students
4.97
5.07
5.02
 
Figure 8
 
In this part of the third grade assessment there is a consistent but counter-intuitive difference across class size. Students in larger classes scored appreciably better than students in smaller classes. This is true of both genders. The average student in a class of 28-30 scored more than 0.5 point higher than the average student in a class of 15-20. This class size related result clearly begs for an explanation. Further analysis and discussion is contained in Section III-E of this report.

Girls had slightly higher scores (0.1 point) than boys on this part of the test. This is in contrast to the multiple choice mathematics questions where boys' achievement surpassed that of the girls.

C. Factors Related to Achievement

Our analysis shows very little difference in achievement among third grade students in class sizes within the range of 15-30 students. However, we did find some differences based on gender (see Figures 5 and 6).

We decided to explore other factors that may be related to achievement test results. Because little information is collected on each student by the NHEIAP, there was no way to investigate what individual background factors might be related to achievement. However, previous reports on New Hampshire's public schools have found factors such as family income and parental education to be strongly related to student achievement. We proceeded to collect school- and community-wide data related to these factors and to aggregate student results accordingly. The result is that, in contrast to class size, these demographic factors show strong relationships to achievement.

Measures of Income

We investigated whether there was any relationship between measures of personal income in school communities and the results on the third grade tests. We used three different measures of income: (1) percentage of students in each school who received free and reduced price school lunches in 1996, (2) average income of two-parent families in the community in 1989, and (3) percentage of the population in the community with incomes below 185% of the official poverty level in 1989.

Free and Reduced Price School Lunches

Each of the 250 elementary schools with more than 10 students has a known percentage of students who received free and reduced price school lunches (eligibility for which is income based). These percentages ranged from 0% in Newfields Elementary School to 77% in the Beech Street School in Manchester. The schools were ordered according to these figures and aggregated into five groups (each with approximately the same number of students) and average scores were calculated for all students in each of the five groups of schools.
 
Table 9
Average Scores
% of Students in Schools Receiving Free and Reduced Price Lunches
Number of Students
Number of Schools
Writing 
Open-Ended Language Arts
Open Ended Mathematics
0.00-6.88%
3,249 
35
7.03
7.07
5.70
6.89-14.01%
3,248 
42
6.73
6.70
5.27
14.02-22.34%
3,272 
57
6.57
6.67
5.04
22.35-34.05%
3,256 
58
6.20
6.47
4.88
34.05-77.21%
3,246 
58
5.85
6.13
4.08
16,271 
 
This analysis was performed for the average writing score, the average score for open-ended language arts questions, and the average score for open-ended mathematics questions. All three show a strong and consistent relationship: the average scores are inversely related to the percentage of students receiving free and reduced price lunches. Figures 9a, 9b, and 9c display these results graphically.
 
Figure 9a
 
Figure 9b
 
Figure 9c

Average Two-Parent Family Income in the Community

Each of the 250 elementary schools with more than 10 students serves one or more communities for which 1990 US Census data is available. We investigated whether any relationship might exist between Census figures on family income and average results. The income figure we chose to use is the average income of two parent families with at least one child. These incomes ranged from $30,731 in Stratford to $98,191 in Bedford.

The schools were ordered according to these figures and then aggregated into five groups (each with approximately the same number of students) and average scores were calculated for all students in each of the five groups of schools.

Table 10 and Figures 10a-c display the results. These results are not as striking or consistent as those above. Nevertheless, they do confirm in a general way that communities with higher family incomes are more likely to exhibit higher average achievement test results.
 

Table 10
 
Average Scores
Average Income of 2 Parent Families in the Community
Number of Students
Number of Schools
Writing 
Open-Ended Language Arts
Open Ended Mathematics
$58,600 - $98,200
3,270 
35
7.02
6.99
5.58
$52,300 - $58,599
3,156 
41
6.78
6.84
5.59
$48,030 - $52,299
2,815 
43
6.43
6.62
4.99
$43,100 - $48,029
3,719 
56
6.05
6.25
4.37
$30,730 - $43,099
3,311 
75
6.18
6.39
4.55
 
16,271 
 
 
 
 
 
The primary reason these results are not as strong as those above is the effect of assigning to all students in a town or city the income figure that is the average for the entire community. For example, in Manchester all students at all 14 elementary schools were assigned the average income for the entire city of Manchester ($48,016). This means that the distinctions between the students in lower-income neighborhoods and those in higher-income neighborhoods have been "averaged out". All Manchester students fell into the same grouping, regardless of the differences between their neighborhoods. The school lunch data, however, allows a distinction between Smyth Road School students (where only 8% receive free or reduced price lunches) and Beech Street School (where 77% do).
 
Figure 10a
 
Figure 10b
 
Figure 10c
 

A similar analysis was done for the percentage of each community's population with incomes below 185% of the official poverty level in 1989. The results are very similar, showing that in communities with poorer populations, achievement of third grade students is generally lower.

Education of Adults

National research, as well as prior research in New Hampshire, indicate that a strong link exists between parental education levels and the achievement test results of children. Because the NHEIAP does not collect information on the family situation of individual students, we decided to use two community averages as proxies for this information. Specifically, we derived from the 1990 census two factors for each school or district: (1) the percentage of adults in the town(s) the school serves who have a high school education or less, and (2) the percentage of adults in the town(s) the school serves who have completed a four year college degree. Test scores were sorted by schools based on each factor and aggregated into five groupings, each with as close to 20% of the students as possible.

Both factors show a strong and consistent relationship with the third grade test results. The higher the percentage of adults in the community with a college education, the higher the average achievement results of third graders (Figures 11 a-c). The higher the percentage of adults in the community with a high school education or less, the lower the test results (Figures 12a-c).

 
Figure 11a
 
 
Figure 11b
 
Figure 11c
 
Figure 12a
 
Figure 12b
 
Figure 12c
 
 Households Renting Homes
Educators have indicated that students who change schools often do not achieve as well as those who remain more consistently in the same school from year to year. The NHEIAP does not collect information on the movement of students. However, we decided to use the percentage of households that are renters in each community or school district as a proxy to determine if there might be some relationship. This is a rather weak proxy because the households that rent may or may not be those with children and renting households may or may not be long-term residents rather than transients. In addition, renters are more likely to have lower incomes than homeowners are and this factor is, therefore, also related to income indicators.

The 1990 US Census was used to obtain for each school or school district the percentage of all households that were renters. Test scores were sorted by schools based on this factor and aggregated into five groupings, each with as close to 20% of the students as possible.

As shown in Figures 13a-c, this factor shows only a muted relationship to achievement. There appears to be little or inconsistent difference in average test results in the 60% of schools where the percentage of renters is 23% (homeowners are 77% and above). For schools where the renters are an even lower percentage of all households, average test results are higher in those communities with very low percentages of renters. Because of these results and the weakness of the proxy factor itself, it would be inappropriate to conclude that schools where larger percentages of students are relatively transient have lower average achievement levels. The data in this study is not adequate to draw a conclusion either way in this regard.

 
Figure 13a
 
Figure 13b
 
Figure 13c
 

D. Comparing Strength of Relationships

Previous figures have displayed average test scores for different groupings of students. In order to provide a visual reference to indicate the relative strength of different relationships to higher or lower scores, Figures 14a-c gather some of these results together. Figure 14a displays the average writing score, 14b displays the average score on open-ended language arts questions, figure 14c displays the average score on open-ended mathematics questions.
 
Figure 14a
 
Figure 14b
 
Figure 14c
 

A close review of these graphs indicates how small a variation is seen in average achievement across class size groupings in comparison to that seen across groupings based on other factors.

In addition to average achievement, it is possible to also look at the complete distribution of scores. This can most easily be done with the multiple-choice components of the language arts and mathematics tests.

Each student taking the language arts test answered 35 multiple-choice questions and obtained a score in the range from 0 - 35 correct. Figure 15a displays the percentage of students who achieved each score. The curve is an expected normal curve with negative skew and a peak (mode) of 30.
 

Figure 15a
 
Similar distribution curves are plotted in Figure 15b for two subgroups of students: the 20% of students attending schools with the lowest percentage of free and subsidized school lunches (0-6.88%) and the 20% of students attending schools with the highest percentage of free and subsidized school lunches (34.05-77.21%). The difference in the distribution of test results between the two groups is visually apparent. While both groups have a peak at 30 correct answers, the students from the schools with fewer school lunch subsidies are considerably more concentrated at higher scores. The curve for the students at schools with more lunch subsidies is considerably flattened. There is a higher percentage of students at each score of 25 or below in this group than among the students from the other group.

Figure 15c displays another set of distribution curves. One is for students in class sizes of 15-20 students while the other is for students in classes of 28-30 students. In this case there is little apparent difference. The two curves are nearly identical.

 
Figure 15b
 
Figure 15c
 

The figures for the multiple-choice mathematics results are very similar to those for language arts presented above. They are not reproduced here because they do not provide any new insights but simply lead to the same conclusion.

Statistically, there is little relationship between the class size in which third grade students spend most of their classroom time and their average achievement or the distribution of their achievement test scores. In contrast, factors associated with the economic situation of the families sending children to the school (as measured by the percentage of students at the school eligible for free and reduced-price lunches) is related to measured achievement levels. So too is the degree to which adults in the community are themselves educated.

E. A Surprise: Schools with Higher Income Families Have Larger Class Sizes
As described above, students in larger classes obtained higher average scores in the open-ended mathematics test items than did those in smaller classes. Although the strength of this relationship is much smaller than those related to socioeconomic variables such as family income and adult education, it is the largest and most consistent of those related to class size. It is also contrary to intuition.

Because we have shown that achievement is most strongly (and inversely) related to the percentage of students receiving free and reduced school lunches, we asked whether it was possible that the larger class sizes had a disproportionate share of students from schools where few students received any lunch subsidy.

Such a possibility seemed contrary to intuition. A common assumption is that schools in communities of higher socioeconomic status are most likely to have higher spending per pupil and, therefore, likely to have smaller average class sizes, not larger.

We determined the percentage of students in each class size that come from each of the 5 school lunch groupings. The results are shown in Table 11.
 

Table 11
Percentage of Students in Each Class Size Grouping
by School Lunch Grouping
Class Size Grouping
% of Students in Schools Receiving Free or Reduced Price School Lunch
15-20
21-24
25-27
28-30
All Class Sizes
0-6.88%
9.9%
22.7%
22.3%
36.1%
19.8%
6.89-14.01%
16.2%
19.9%
22.9%
29.8%
19.8%
14.02-22.34%
28.4%
16.3%
18.5%
11.3%
19.9%
22.35-34.05%
29.8%
18.2%
11.1%
15.8%
19.8%
34.05-77.21%
14.3%
22.9%
25.2%
7.0%
19.8%
Unknown
1.2%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.9%
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
 
This result is surprising. The school lunch groupings had been created so that as close to 20% of the students as possible would fall into each grouping. This is shown in the rightmost column of the table. Among all class sizes 39.6% of the students are from schools in the two school lunch groupings with the lowest subsidy rates. However, among students in classes of 28-30 students, 65.9% of the students come from these schools, while only 22.8% come from schools with high school lunch subsidy.

We then asked whether the open-ended math scores of the class sizes could be predicted based simply on the skewed distribution of students from the different school lunch groupings.

The average score of all students on the open-ended math questions was 5.02 while for those in class sizes of 28-30 students it was 5.44, 0.42 higher than the average. The predicted result based solely on the distribution of school lunch groupings is 5.26. In other words, after accounting for the unexpected preponderance of students from the lower lunch subsidy schools, the difference from the average score is only 0.18. This remaining unexplained difference is not large and our conclusion is that there is little or no relation between class size and the results in this portion of the NHEIAP.

The surprise that schools from "wealthier" communities tend to have larger class sizes, however, deserved further investigation.

Dividing all students into 4 class size groupings and simultaneously into 5 school lunch subsidy groupings, however, results in 20 different subgroups. Some of these have too few students from too few schools to be able to draw useful statistical conclusions. The schools were therefore divided into only two school lunch groupings, each containing approximately half the students. 8,131 students were from schools where 18.75% or fewer students receive school lunch subsidy and 8,140 were from schools with higher school lunch subsidy rates. For ease of reference, the former group is termed the "wealthier" schools and the latter the "poorer" schools. The latter group has more students from low-income families than the former group. (148 students are from schools with 9 or fewer 3rd graders. These schools are unidentified and thus listed as "unknown" in regard to school lunch subsidy.)

Table 12 and Figure 16 display the percentage of students in each class size grouping that come from the wealthier and poorer schools.
 

Table 12
Percentage of Students in Each Class Size Grouping from
"Wealthier" and "Poorer" Schools
Class Size Grouping
15-20
21-24
25-27
28-30
All Class Sizes
Wealthier 
0-18.75%
37.6%
48.3%
60.3%
77.2%
49.5%
Poorer 
18.76-77.21%
61.2%
51.6%
39.7%
22.8%
49.6%
Unknown
1.2%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.9%
Total
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
 
Figure 16
 
This is a surprising and important finding. Students from the poorer schools constitute more than 60% of the students in classes of 15-20 students while they are less than 25% of the students in classes of 28-30.

This finding raises the following question: "Is it possible that there is a measurable and consistent advantage of smaller class size that is masked by the increasing percentage of students from wealthier schools in large class sizes?"

To determine whether this might be true, we re-analyzed the five components of the NHEIAP this time dividing all students into the two groups based on school lunch subsidy rates: the wealthier and poorer schools. The results are displayed in Figures 17a (open-ended language arts), Figure 17b (open-ended mathematics), Figure 17c (writing score), Figure 17d (multiple choice language arts), and Figure 17e (multiple choice mathematics).
 

Figure 17a
 
Figure 17b
 
Figure 17c
 
Figure 17d
 
Figure 17e

There is considerable variation but we found no strong and consistent relationship between class size and resulting scores for either group. At the same time, students from the wealthier schools consistently score higher than the students from the poorer schools.

The only exception to this occurs in open-ended mathematics scores in the largest class size grouping. In this case, the students from the "poorer" schools did somewhat better than students in "wealthier" schools. They scored much better than the students from poorer schools in other class size groupings. This exception is so striking that it deserves further investigation.
 

IV. Cautions and Caveats

This analysis is for the 3rd grade only. One cannot assume that similar results would have been obtained from 6th or 10th grade tests if that analysis had been possible.

The presence of a teacher's aide in the classroom could affect student achievement. It is possible that larger classes are more likely to have such an aide than smaller classes. As we lack information about the presence of teacher’s aides in each classroom, we cannot determine to what extent this factor could explain or confound some of our results.

Our research does not conclude that smaller classes are without benefit. There may well be benefits to students and teachers in categories such as fewer discipline problems, better morale, more individual attention, or greater class cohesiveness. However, those benefits do not result in significantly different achievement levels as measured by the NHEIAP.

The NHEIAP 3rd grade test attempts to measure achievement of a limited set of specific skills and knowledge related to mathematics and language arts. It does not attempt to measure knowledge in subject areas such as science, an understanding of community or nation, achievement in art or music, social skills such as cooperation, respect for others, or traits such as dependability, self-motivation, and imagination. Accordingly we cannot come to any conclusion about the effect that class size might or might not have on these important topics.

Much of this analysis relies on average scores. Each is the average of hundreds or thousands of individual scores. Within each grouping, some students score higher and others lower than the average. There is no attempt to imply that all students in a particular school or classroom environment will have test scores of a certain level. It is certain that some students in poorer schools will fall at the extreme upper end of the achievement spectrum while some students from the wealthier schools will score very poorly and vice versa. These averages do not predict the results for any one student nor do they imply that all students in a particular group will have similar achievement.
 
 

V. Implications for Policy and Recommendations

The findings of this study should be considered in the current debate surrounding education reform and the finance of New Hampshire's public schools.

A. Making Class Size Decisions

Class size (in the range from 15-30 students in the early elementary grades) in a school is not related to average NHEIAP scores. Local and state policy makers should not assume that by reducing class size the scores on assessment tests will necessarily rise.

There are many rationales for smaller class sizes in the elementary grades and those should be discussed and debated. But the data do not lend support to the notion that reducing class sizes in a school will result in higher average test scores.

Decisions about appropriate elementary school class sizes are continually made by each school board and school administration in the state. The decision about when to split a class that is "too large" or to redistribute students by adding another section are important decisions for each school and district. There are many factors that should be taken into consideration, including physical crowding, level of discipline problems, teacher and student morale, operating costs, available classroom space, etc. Decisions about appropriate class size, however should not be based on an expectation that reducing class sizes will necessarily result in higher levels of student achievement, at least as measured by the third grade NHEIAP tests.

B. The Importance of Community Demographics

The public currently wants and expects public schools to be more accountable for results. Perceptions of falling achievement, whether or not supported by fact, are driving demand for more outcome-oriented measures to be used to achieve the desired accountability. Over the past decade, the creation of New Hampshire's curriculum frameworks and the NHEIAP tests are two tangible results of this public concern.

However, this study shows that underlying community demographics (whether measured by income, education, or other factors) are strongly related to average NHEIAP scores of students. Factors that are most predictive of higher achievement test scores are ones over which teachers, schools, and school boards have no control.

Policy makers should proceed with extreme caution in using NHEIAP test scores as a measure of the overall accomplishments of a school or district. Using the results without accounting for differences in the underlying community demographics will be misleading and potentially damaging.

C. Appropriate State Reporting for Improved School Accountability

The Department of Education annually cautions the public not to use the results from the NHEIAP tests to compare schools or districts. But the fact is that the public, the news media, local school boards, and state politicians do use the data in this way. Rather than ignore this, the Department should provide leadership and guidance needed to make reasonable and useful comparisons.

Recently enacted New Hampshire legislation requires the Department to report "comparisons with state averages" and "statewide rankings of each district and school". While the Department must comply with this law, it should go further and provide additional information that would be more informative and useful.

The state's annual NHEIAP results should be tabulated, analyzed, and presented so that districts or schools are shown how they fare in comparison to those with which they share common population characteristics. The Department should divide schools and districts into 4-6 groups based upon demographic factors that are known to be related to achievement. Test results from a school should first be compared to the average and distribution of all schools in the same demographic group.

A school should be considered to be performing well or poorly to the extent that it falls below or above average for its group.

Such a system is not novel. Georgia and other states already provide this kind of analysis when reporting the results of their statewide assessment tests.

D. Devising a Formula for Distributing State Aid

In Claremont II, the Supreme Court has held that the state is responsible for providing an "adequate education" for all students. State funding is to be provided to all districts to achieve that result.

A common working assumption has been that some (as yet undetermined) uniform dollar amount of state aid per pupil distributed to each school district will suffice to accomplish this end. Such an assumption is contrary to the findings that student body and community demographics have great impact on performance as measured by the NHEIAP tests.

If all schools are to be held to the same fixed standard of performance measured by assessment test results, regardless of the differences in the makeup of their student bodies and communities, then it is important to recognize that different resource mixes will be needed.

An example: one measure of an adequate education may be that fewer than 15% of students in a school score at the novice level in 3rd grade NHEIAP tests. If so, then it must be recognized that different resources will be needed to accomplish this in a district where only 10% of the adults have completed a college education than in one where 80% have done so.

It will be important for any new formula for state aid to take into account such differences. The formula should be constructed with a weighting mechanism that modifies the amount provided per pupil to each district based on one or more demographic factors. Exactly what factors should be used and how much they should be weighted can be worked out and altered over time. However, from the beginning it should be clear that a uniform resource distribution per pupil will not result in comparable levels of student performance in schools that do not have comparable student populations.

This will be especially important if, in the next few years, the state legislature or Board of Education should enact standards of performance and distribute rewards or penalties to schools or districts that are based, in part, on outcome measures such as the NHEIAP results.
 

VI. Future Research

Our findings raise many questions for which we have no answers. There is a need for future research to be conducted to better inform those who set policy for public education at the state and local level. We make the following suggestions. We believe that the NHEIAP is an important tool in the search for ways to improve public education in New Hampshire. It has already provided a method for parents to assess the achievement of their children, for schools and districts to measure their areas of success or failure, and for the state to determine changes in achievement of the total student population from year to year. But it can do a lot more than this. With only a little extra effort at data collection and more attention given to research and analysis, it can begin to identify which factors are really related to improved achievement and which are not. Ideas for new programs and initiatives could spring from real data and different approaches could be tested for different student populations.
 

VII. Literature Review and Bibliography

Research on the effect of class size in American public schools took place as early as 1893. Studies of various kinds have been conducted in many countries and many reports exist. One recent review of the literature turned up over 1500 citations!

What does this research show? A 1997 review of the research by the Education Commission of the States concluded, "The research about whether small classes improve student achievement has produced mixed results." Some studies - like ours - have shown little or no relationship between class size and achievement. Other studies, most recently from Tennessee’s Project STAR, have shown a positive relationship between smaller classes and achievement. Yet others have found a positive relationship only for certain students (non-English speakers), or only when other conditions are met (changed teaching methods).

Our results speak for themselves. We believe they reflect accurately the situation among New Hampshire 3rd graders in 1997.

One important distinction between our research and that of other studies is the size of the population being studied. Almost all of the other studies have looked at small samples of students or schools and then tried to draw statistically valid conclusions about the untested student population. Our research, however, looked at all 3rd graders in all public schools in the entire state. We can describe the entire population, not just a sample. It also has the advantage of being a study of the very population New Hampshire policy makers are concerned about – New Hampshire students. Studies done in locales outside our borders are too often dismissed by policy-makers as irrelevant to their concerns because "of course, our students/schools/teachers/systems are different."

This bibliography has been selected to place an emphasis on the reports and studies of the past decade, but also to include some of the more influential reports and publications of the late 1970s and 1980s.

 -----

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Achilles, C., Nye, B., & Zaharias, J. (1995, April). Policy Use of Research Results: Tennessee's Project Challenge. Paper presented at the annual convention of the American Educational Research Association, San Francisco, CA.

Achilles, C., Nye, B., Zaharias, J., & Fulton, B. (1993). The Lasting Benefits Study in Grades 4 and 5 (1990-1991): A Legacy from Tennessee’s Four Year (K-3) Class Size Study (1985-1989), Project STAR. Paper presented at North Carolina Association for Research in Education, Greensboro, NC.

Achilles, et. al. (1994). The Multiple Benefits of Class-Size Research: A Review of STAR’s Legacy, Subsidiary and Ancillary Studies. (ERICdocument number ED 390913).

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Word, E., Achilles, C., Bain, H., Folger, J., Johnston, J., & Lintz N. (1990). "Project STAR Final Executive Summary: Kindergarten through Third Grade Results (1985-1989)." Contemporary Education, 62 (1).

Word, E., Johnston, J., Bain H., et. al. (1990). Student/Teacher Achievement Ratio (STAR) Tennessee’s Class Size Study, Final Summary Report. Tennessee Department of Ecuation, Nashville.

Word, E., Johnston, J., Bain H., Fulton, B., Zaharias, J., Achilles, C., Linz, M., Folger, J., & Breda, C. (1994). The State of Tennessee’s Student/Teacher Achievement Ratio (STAR) Project: Technical Report 1985-1990. Tennessee Department of Ecuation.

Word, E., Johnston, J., Bain, H., Fulton, D., Boyd-Zaharias, J., Lintz, M., Achilles, C., Folger, J., & Breda, C. (1990). Student/Teacher Achievement Ratio (STAR): Tennessee's K-3 Class-size Study. Tennessee State Department of Education, Nashville, TN.

Wright, E., Shapson, S., Beason, G., & Fitzgerald, J. (1977). Effects of Class Size in the Junior Grades. Ontario Ministry of Education.
 

 Appendix: The Smallest Class Size Group

Four hundred fifty-five students indicated that their class size was somewhere in the range of 1-14 students. While these students comprised only 2.8% of the third graders, we first felt that this was a large enough number to include in our analysis.

Intuition holds that smaller class sizes in public elementary schools should result in better educational results, whether measured by standardized tests or other means. Yet our analysis showed that the results among students in this grouping were considerably lower on every measure than those of the four groupings covering class sizes from 15-30. This result, so contrary to intuition, required us to investigate the makeup of this group further.

Differences in achievement results cannot be attributed to class size if there is reason to believe that the student populations in different class sizes were not reasonably equivalent.

Special Education Students

Upon preliminary review of the results, we asked whether it was possible that very small class sizes contained a disproportionate share of special education students. Could this explain the unexpectedly lower performance in the smallest classes?

We determined the number and percentage of students in each class size grouping who were coded for special education. Table A1 and Figure A1 display the results. Special education students seem to be relatively equally distributed in class size groupings of 15-30 students, constituting between 11.5% and 12.3% of students in each group. However, they constituted 19.1% of the students in classes of 1-14 students. Special education students are disproportionately represented in the smallest classes.
 

Table A1
Class Size
Special Education
Non Special Education
Total Students
% Special Education
1-14
87 
368 
455 
19.1%
15-20
510 
3,694 
4,204 
12.1%
21-24
773 
5,520 
6,293 
12.3%
25-27
398 
2,914 
3,312 
12.0%
28-30
182 
1,398 
1,580 
11.5%
All Students
2,231 
14,188 
16,419 
13.6%
 
Figure A1
 
We decided to determine whether the lower achievement test results in the smallest classes could be related to the disproportionate presence of coded special education students in this group. To investigate this, we first looked at the average writing score of both special education and non-special education students in each class size grouping. The results are displayed in Table A2 and Figure A2.
 
Table A2
Average Writing Score
Class Size
Special Education Students 
Non-Special Education 
All Students
1-14
4.16 
6.43
6.02
15-20
4.69 
6.72
6.48
21-24
4.76 
6.76
6.53
25-27
4.69 
6.76
6.53
28-30
4.83 
6.72
6.53
All Students
4.70 
6.72
6.49
 
Figure A2
 
Reviewing these results, it is clear that some of the difference in average writing scores in the smallest classes is explained by the disproportionate number of special education students in those classes. However, this does not explain all of the difference. Even among special education students, writing scores are still lower for those in classes with 1-14 students. Among non-special education students there was also a remaining difference: those in the smallest classes did not perform as well as their counterparts in classes of 15-30 students.

Similar results were found for other components of the language arts assessment program as well as the mathematics tests.

If all students were randomly assigned to classes there would be no disproportionate share of special education students in the smallest classes.

Small Schools and Small Communities

Of the 455 students that indicated that their class size did not exceed 14 pupils, 257 (56.5%) were from seventeen schools that were very small and tended to be located in some of the state's smallest communities. An additional 91 students were from schools that are so tiny that they were not identified by name in the data files, having fewer than 10 third graders in attendance. Altogether 76.5% of the students in this grouping were from very small schools.

We concluded that this group, in addition to being very small in number of students, differed greatly in makeup from the four larger class groupings. This grouping contains an unusually high concentration of students from very small schools and has a disproportionately high representation of special education students.

We have therefore not included the results from this smallest class size grouping in the body of our report.

 
 
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Date last modified: January 24, 1999