WMUR-Dartmouth College Analysis of New Hampshire Presidential Republican Primary Candidates Released on December 4, 1995
The WMUR-Dartmouth College New Hampshire Primary poll conducted October 22 - 25 showed Bob Dole with a comfortable lead over 9 other Republican nomination hopefuls. Still many observers characterized Dole's lead as soft with almost 20% of likely Republican primary voters undecided and one-half of Dole's supporters willing to switch to Colin Powell had he entered the race. A new in-depth analysis of the late October poll results provides the most systematic examination to date of the sources of candidate support in New Hampshire. The 536 likely Republican primary voters polled were asked a series of open-ended questions about the candidates running for the Republican nomination. The responses to these questions provide insights into what candidate characteristics and issue positions are having an impact on New Hampshire voters. The results show that even three and one-half months before the primary, voters link a distinctive set of qualities and issues with each of the different candidates. The open-ended candidate questions were administered on the basis of the respondent's answers to candidate favorability questions. Those respondents who were either favorable, not favorable, or undecided towards a candidate, were asked an open-ended question about that candidate. Respondents who said they had not heard enough about a candidate to have an opinion were not asked further about the candidate. Each response was classified according to its subject area and whether it was positive, neutral or negative. Who's Up? Who's Down? Table 1 gives the results as a percentage of all respondents in the poll regardless of whether or not they were asked the open-ended question. This table gives an indication of the overall reach of the candidate's message. The results show that close to one-half of the 536 likely Republican primary voters polled have something negative to say about Bob Dole. On the positive side, 41% of likely voters had a favorable comment about Dole. Pat Buchanan, another well-known candidate, also had a high percentage of voters say something negative, but unlike Dole, does not have a corresponding number voters making a positive comment. Phil Gramm's positives equal his negatives. Though lesser known, Forbes and Alexander are the only candidates who have as many voters making positive comments as negative comments. Table 1 Positive Neutral Negative Alexander 22 15 14 Buchanan 20 14 44 Dole 41 14 47 Forbes 24 14 17 Gramm 30 10 30 Margin of Error: +/- 5 percent. Q: Now we'd like to hear your thoughts and ideas about the candidates who are running for president this year. For each candidate that I mention, I'd like you to tell me anything that comes to mind about about his abilities, background, issue positions, or antying else. How about [insert candidate name]? What comes to mind when you think about [insert candidate name]? Anything else? Table 2 Positive Neutral Negative Number of cases Alexander 52 35 33 221 Buchanan 30 21 65 361 Dole 52 17 60 417 Forbes 57 32 41 218 Gramm 34 21 61 258 Margin of Error: Ranges from +/- 5 percent for Dole to +/- 7 percent for Forbes. Table 2 gives the results as a percentage of only those voters who were asked and able to give an answer about each candidate. This table shows the appeal of the candidates only among those voters who know enough to have an opinion giving an indication of each candidate's potential as the campaign progresses. In other words, when voters know a candidate, do they like him? Not surprisingly the gap between Dole's positives and negatives does not change from Table 1 to Table 2. From his long history of presidential runs, most New Hampshire voters already know a great deal about Dole and are able to offer up an opinion. A comparison of the candidates in the second tier is most informative. Table 2 shows that Pat Buchanan's campaign so far has been unsuccessful at overcoming his negatives. Only 30% of voters who were able to comment on Buchanan could come up with a positive comment while over twice as many had something negative to say. Phil Gramm faces a similar problem. Twice as many voters who have something to say about Gramm say something negative than positive. Both Steve Forbes and Lamar Alexander might find some comfort in the results in Table 2. When voters know something about Forbes and Alexander, over a majority have something positive to say. Forbes has both more voters who make a positive and negative remarks than Alexander. Both candidates also have almost a third of the voters giving a neutral comment suggesting that it might be easier for them to cultivate future support. The similarities between Alexander and Forbes end though when the content of the comments is examined, which is the subject of the next section. Candidate Images Bob Dole's government experience is proving to be a double-edged sword. The most mentioned positive comment about Dole concerned his government experience. Likely Republican primary voters see Dole as a knowledgeable politician who is well-qualified for the presidency. At the same time Dole is hurt by his image as part of the Washington establishment. Dole's leadership style is also seen as bittersweet in voters' eyes. While voters picture Dole as strong leader, he is also viewed negatively because he compromises too much and changes his position too often. Perhaps the biggest obstacle for Dole will be his age. The single most mentioned comment concerning Dole was his age, and over 90% of the age comments were negative. Finally, Dole continues to be plagued by hot-tempered image. The effect of Steve Forbes's aggressive ad campaign is evident in the responses to the candidate open-ended questions. Forbes has chosen to focus long and hard on a few select issues, and voters have taken notice. Forbes is mentioned in terms of his issues positions more than any other candidate with an overwhelming percentage of voters voicing something positive about Forbes's flat tax proposal. Likely Republican primary voters also approve of his experience in the business world. But as with Bob Dole, Forbes's experience has a negative side. An even larger number of voters doubt that he has enough experience to make a good president. While Forbes's wealth has enabled him to run his massive ad campaign, his fortune is viewed negatively in the eyes of many voters. As a self-made man, Ross Perot's wealth served as an indication of his abilities. As Malcom Forbes's heir, Steve Forbes will need to work hard to show that he can understand the concerns of the average American. In the end, Forbes will also need to overcome the belief among many voters that he has little chance to win so that a vote for Forbes is not seen as a wasted vote. New Hampshire voters are already familiar with Pat Buchanan from his 1992 challenge of George Bush. Unfortunately for Buchanan, this familiarity has not brought affection. When voters talk about Buchanan, the most frequent comment concerns his conservative ideology. Surprisingly most of these comments are negative, some are neutral, and very few are positive. Over and over, voters say that Buchanan is too conservative. Buchanan does get some general support for his issue positions, but more voters voice negative remarks about his stance on abortion and ties to the Christian right. At the same time, some voters appreciate Buchanan's willingness to stick to his positions. His supporters view him as an honest man who is trying to do what he thinks is best for the country, while his detractors are more likely to see him as an opinionated racist. Since Lamar Alexander does not have the money of Steve Forbes he has chosen to walk across the state of New Hampshire to spread his message. Many voters remarked about Alexander's unique campaign strategy, but most did so in a neutral or negative way. Alexander's flannel shirt also generated a number of neutral comments. The direct references to Alexander's walk and attire might not be positive, but his strategy seems to have produced an image of Alexander as an honest man who understands the average American. Alexander is viewed positively in terms of his professional experience both in and out of government, his personal qualities and his overall issue positions. Yet none of these favorable traits generate the same level of positive remarks as Forbes's tax proposal. Alexander does not have one particular negative trait like the other candidates. Some voters wonder whether he is qualified for the office while others question Alexander's attempt to portray himself as an outsider causing them to doubt his honesty. With the exception of his walk across the state, voters' comments about Alexander are more diverse and less distinctive compared to the other candidates. Somewhat surprisingly Phil Gramm has not come across favorably to New Hampshire voters. Many voters simply gave an overall negative response along the lines of "I just don't like him." Gramm's most favorable trait is his association with cutting the budget deficit. Beyond his role in Gramm-Rudman, more voters view Gramm's government experience negatively than positively. He is seen as just another politician and part of the Washington crowd. A number of voters feel that Gramm is too conservative. The biggest problem for Gramm seems to be his personal style. Many likely Republican primary voters said they did not like his personality and that he seemed dishonest. More voters mentioned Gramm's home state than the home state or region of any other candidate. So far, Gramm's Texas accent and down home style have not rung true to New Hampshire voters. Campaign Issues The analysis of the candidate open-ended questions showed Steve Forbes having an impact by focusing on the issues. In order to determine what issues might play a role in the campaign, we asked voters what one issue they would most like to see the candidates discuss. [see Table 3] The results show that economic issues continue to loom large for many voters, but unlike 1992 unemployment and jobs are not the focus of voters. Almost 25% of likely Republican primary voters want to hear the candidates discuss their plans for cutting the budget deficit. Another 10%, perhaps due to Forbes, would like the candidates to discuss their tax proposals. The general state of the economy does remain an important issue with 9% of likely Republican primary voters. Health care issues continue to be a concern for many voters. Almost 9% of likely primary voters want to hear the candidates discuss their plans for health care reform with another 9% wishing the candidates would discuss their plans for Medicare. One of the themes of the 1994 election, downsizing and reforming government, remains a popular topic of discussion for 7% of voters. Only 4% of voters view welfare as the one issue they want the candidates to discuss most. Few voters want the candidates to discuss declining ethics and values above all other issues. Table 3 Important Campaign Issues Percentage Deficit 23.5 Taxes 10.0 Economy 9.3 Health Care 8.8 Medicare 8.7 Government 7.0 Education 4.7 Welfare 3.5 Declining Ethics 2.8 Unemployment/Jobs 2.0 Foreign Aid 1.8 Social Security 1.6 Abortion 1.6 Crime/Violence 1.5 Elderly 1.2 Poverty .9 Environment .9 All Others Combined 9.0 Q: What one issue do you wish the presidential candidates would talk about most? Margin of Error: +/- 5 percent Poll Methodology Seven hundred telephone interviews were completed with New Hampshire residents 18 years of age or older from October 22 through October 25. Of this group of 700, 164 respondents identified with the Democratic party and received an abbreviated interview. The remaining 536 identified with the Republican party or were independents and received a longer survey. A few Democrats who said they would definitely vote in the Republican primary also received the long survey. This group was asked a series of questions that are known to predict voter turnout. The responses to these questions were used to compute a likely vote weight which was applied to the data so that the responses of those more likely to vote are weighted more heavily than those less likely to vote. The reported margins of error are based on a 95 percent confidence interval. It differs somewhat for every question and is noted under each table.