The subject of these survey reports are the approval rating of the President over time; the "mood of the New Hampshire electorate; and the feelings about the "American Dream."
PRESIDENTIAL APPROVAL RATINGS President Clinton's approval rating in New Hampshire was 41 percent in the most recent poll, down 3-points since the last poll conducted in March [TABLE 1]. Notice that the President's overall standing with voters has changed little over the course of the past year. As expected, evaluations of the President are strongly correlated with partisan differences among voters [TABLE 2]. Among Democrats, Clinton has an approval rating of 62 percent, down from 75 percent in the March poll. Among Independents, Clinton registers as much opposition (42%) as approval (42%). Among Republicans, only 27 percent approve of the job Clinton is doing as President, while 67 percent disapprove. A Second Term? In addition to a relatively low overall approval rating, only 28 percent of New Hampshire citizens say that Clinton deserves a second term, while 57 percent say he does not deserve to be re- elected. ___________________________ TABLE 1 APPROVAL RATING OF PRESIDENT BILL CLINTON 03/93 06/93 09/93 12/93 03/94 Approve 52% 33% 44% 52% 48% Disapprove 26 50 46 39 43 No opinion 22 17 10 9 9 TOTAL 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% CASES (503) (518) (504) (500) (500) TABLE 1 CONTINUED 06/94 09/94 12/94 03/95 06/95 Approve 44% 41% 38% 44% 41% Disapprove 44 49 53 45 44 No opinion 12 10 9 11 15 TOTAL 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% CASES (503) (577) (460) (504) (512) TABLE 2 APPROVAL RATING OF PRESIDENT BILL CLINTON COMPARED BY PARTY IDENTIFICATION 03/94 06/94 09/94 12/94 03/95 06/95 DEMOCRATS Approve 82 76 69 61 75 62 Disapprove 14 14 20 31 15 29 INDEPENDENTS Approve 54 42 45 40 45 42 Disapprove 39 47 41 51 43 42 REPUBLICANS Approve 23 22 21 14 23 27 Disapprove 67 69 75 81 67 60 CASES (500) (503) (577) (460) (504) (512) TABLE 3 DOES BILL CLINTON DESERVE TO BE RE-ELECTED 03/95 06/95 YES-deserves re-election 29% 28% NO-does not deserve re-election 53 57 No Opinion 19 15 TOTAL 100% 100% CASES (504) (512) QUESTION USED IN THIS STUDY 1. Do you APPROVE or DISAPPROVE of the way Bill Clinton is handling his job as President? IF APPROVE OR DISAPPROVE: Do you feel that strongly or moderately? 1) Strongly Approve 2) Moderately Approve 3) Moderately DISapprove 4) Strongly DISapprove 9) Don't know/Unsure 2. Do you think Bill Clinton has performed his job as president well enough to deserve reelection, or do you think it's time to give a new person a chance? 1) Clinton deserves reelection 2) Time for a new person 9) Unsure _________________________________________________________________ THE MOOD OF THE NEW HAMPSHIRE ELECTORATE The importance of the New Hampshire presidential primary is an indisputable fact of American politics. As curious as it may be, New Hampshire primary voters exert an inordinate influence over the process of selecting the nation's presidents. Other states have tried to increase their influence in the nominating process by scheduling their primaries earlier in the election year, and a few have even tried to schedule their primaries BEFORE New Hampshire's. But so, far, no state (or states) has been able to usurp New Hampshire's privileged "first-in-the-nation" primary status. In fact, it is somewhat ironic that the current scramble for influence among states in various regions of the country will, in all likelihood, only serve to further heighten the importance of the New Hampshire Primary and shorten the "winnowing" process to a matter of weeks rather than months. It is therefore useful to examine the sentiment of voters in New Hampshire and consider how the public's mood might affect the 1996 primary campaign. It is unlikely that the issue of the economy will dominate the 1996 primary election the way it did in 1992. Since the last primary contest, New Hampshire's economy has experienced a marked turn around, changing the political landscape in important ways. Perhaps most important, the state's unemployment rate has been cut nearly in half since February 1992. Perhaps the most striking change brought about by the state's improving economy is a general improvement in the political mood of the electorate. In December 1991, on the eve of the last New Hampshire primary, only about one-fourth of citizens (27%) were satisfied with the way things were going in New Hampshire [TABLE 1]. Notice that over two-thirds (67%) of voters were dissatisfied. Quarterly polls conducted over the past several years show a complete turn around in the public's mood. In the most recent poll, 65 percent of citizens say they are satisfied with the way things are going in New Hampshire, while only 29 percent are dissatisfied. These results point to a much more sanguine political mood in the state. At the national level, New Hampshire citizens also express greater satisfaction with the way things are going [TABLE 2]. Again, on the eve of the 1992 primary only 19 percent of residents said they were satisfied with the way things were going in the United States. That figure increased to 40 percent in the most recent poll. It is also worth noting that the most dramatic improvement in political mood has occurred among Republican and Independent voters. Among Republicans, for example, satisfaction with the way things are going in the country increased from 26 to 46 percent since the end of 1991. And at the state level, satisfaction increased from 37 to 79 percent! IMPROVING CONSUMER CONFIDENCE Additional evidence of the public's improving mood can be found in consumer confidence figures [TABLE 3]. In the most recent statewide poll, the New Hampshire Consumer Confidence Index registered 96.6, a figure almost double that recorded on the eve of the last primary. Most of the increase in consumer optimism can be explained by the dramatic increase in the Present Situation Index registered since 1991. This index is based on two questions which ask about current economic conditions in the state. Notice that the index has increased substantially over the past several years. The index showed modest improvement during 1992-93, and then soared during 1994-95. Despite a slight drop in the March poll, the Index continues to show real improvement in the economy. It would be a mistake to overemphasize the optimism of the New Hampshire electorate. The economy has improved in New Hampshire, but there is still a sense that the country is headed in the wrong direction. Again, more people say they are dissatisfied (53%) than satisfied (40%) with the way things are going in the United States. These findings are consistent with a growing archive of national polling data replete with evidence of the country's anti-incumbent and anti-Washington political mood. But the angry mood of the electorate in New Hampshire has waned substantially as a result of the state's economic turn around, and current trends point to an increasingly satisfied public. ___________________________ TABLE 1 POLITICAL MOOD IN NEW HAMPSHIRE 12/91 12/92 03/93 09/93 03/94 09/94 03/95 06/95 Satisfied 27% 37% 43% 53% 56% 65% 67% 65% Dissatisfied 67 57 51 40 37 28 27 29 No Opinion 6 6 6 7 7 7 6 6 TOTAL 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% TABLE 2 POLITICAL MOOD IN THE UNITED STATES 12/91 12/92 03/93 09/93 03/94 09/94 03/95 06/95 Satisfied 19% 28% 27% 27% 40% 35% 43% 40% Dissatisfied 79 63 65 67 53 56 51 53 No Opinion 2 9 8 6 7 9 6 7 TOTAL 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% TABLE 3 CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDICES Index, 1985=100 Dec 92 Mar 93 Jun 93 Sep 93 Dec 93 Consumer Confidence Index New Hampshire 79.2 75.1 64.2 65.8 84.2 New England 67.5 58.6 46.5 55.5 67.3 United States 78.1 63.2 58.9 63.8 79.8 Present Situation Index New Hampshire 18.8 19.7 22.5 31.9 38.1 New England 11.3 9.9 12.0 15.4 23.4 United States 39.3 41.2 42.7 50.2 61.8 Expectations Index New Hampshire 119.6 112.1 92.0 88.4 115.0 New England 105.1 91.1 69.5 84.5 95.5 United States 103.9 76.8 69.7 72.8 91.8 TABLE 3 (Cont'd.) Index, 1985=100 Mar 94 Jun 94 Sep 94 Dec 94 Mar 95 Jun 95 Consumer Confidence Index New Hampshire 84.3 85.9 102.5 113.5 101.2 96.6 New England 66.6 72.2 75.2 68.8 80.5-r 81.5-p United States 86.7 92.5 89.5 102.2 99.0-r 101.6-p Present Situation Index New Hampshire 37.7 62.6 95.6 96.5 78.0 100.9 New England 19.0 30.8 45.2 41.7 47.7-r 55.3-p United States 77.9 89.4 89.5 110.3 112.0-r 114.3-p Expectations Index New Hampshire 115.4 100.8 107.1 124.8 116.7 93.7 New England 98.4 100.4 89.3 86.8 102.5-r 99.0-p United States 92.6 94.6 89.5 96.7 90.4-r 93.2-p NOTE: Figures for United States and New England are provided by THE CONFERENCE BOARD. Figures for New Hampshire are provided by UNH Survey Center. QUESTIONS USED IN THIS STUDY 1. Are you generally satisfied or dissatisfied with the way things are going in New Hampshire at this time? Do you feel that strongly or moderately? 1) Strongly Satisfied 2) Moderately Satisfied 3) Don't Know (VOLUNTEERED) 4) Moderately Dissatisfied 5) Strongly Dissatisfied 2. Are you generally satisfied or dissatisfied with the way things are going in the United States at this time? Do you feel that strongly or moderately? 1) Strongly Satisfied 2) Moderately Satisfied 3) Don't Know (VOLUNTEERED) 4) Moderately Dissatisfied 5) Strongly Dissatisfied _______________________ THE AMERICAN DREAM TABLE 1 shows how many New Hampshire citizens believe that the American dream of equal opportunity, personal freedom, and social mobility has become harder or easier to achieve during the past ten years. As shown, three-fourths of citizens (75%) say the American dream has become harder to achieve in the past decade. Only 14 percent of citizens say it has become easier to achieve the American dream. These results point to a public which has grown increasingly weary and disillusioned with economic and social conditions in America. TABLE 2 shows how many New Hampshire citizens believe the American dream will be harder or easier for their children to achieve in the future. Again, the overwhelming majority of citizens (77%) express the somewhat pessimistic view that their children will have a more difficult time achieving the American dream. These results suggest a disconcerted public worried about the disappearance, or perceived disappearance, of an America filled with opportunities for economic and social mobility. The results of these two questions were compared by a comprehensive set of demographic variables, but few differences were found. TABLE 1 DO YOU THINK THE AMERICAN DREAM OF EQUAL OPPORTUNITY, PERSONAL FREEDOM, AND SOCIAL MOBILITY HAS BECOME HARDER OR EASIER TO ACHIEVE OVER THE PAST TEN YEARS Harder 75% Easier 14 Same 5 No Opinion 6 TOTAL 100% CASES (512) TABLE 2 DO YOU THINK YOUR CHILDREN WILL HAVE A HARDER OR EASIER TIME ACHIEVING THE AMERICAN DREAM THAN YOU HAD Harder 77% Easier 12 Same 6 No Children 1 >5% No Opinion 4 TOTAL 100% CASES (512) QUESTIONS USED IN THIS STUDY 1. Do you think that the American dream of equal opportunity, personal freedom, and social mobility has become harder or easier to achieve during the past 10 years? 1) Harder 2) Easier 3) Same (volunteered) 9) No opinion 2. Do you think that your children will have a harder or easier time achieving the American dream than you have had? 1) Harder 2) Easier 3) Same (volunteered) 8) Do not have children (volunteered) 9) No opinion