New Hampshire Presidential Primary Poll
Results of New Hampshire Presidential Primary Poll
Conducted by the University of New Hampshire Survey Center
Released on Sept 8.
The results of the survey are provided below. The questions asked in the
survey follow the results. This information was provided to NH-Primary by
Kelly Myers, Director of the UNH Survey Center. You will find below,
after the Methodological Preface, a series of 15 tables that show the
results of the poll. The questions asked of the registered Republican and
Independent NH voters address candidate preferences, first and second
choice candidates, favorability toward specific candidates, committment to
first choice the possibility of a Powell candidacy, and identification of
major problems facing NH and the United States.
Methodological Preface
The results of this report are based on a telephone survey of
registered Republican voters and registered Independent voters who
lean toward the Republican party. The survey was administered by
the University of New Hampshire Survey Center. The poll was
sponsored by the Boston Herald and WCVB-TV (Channel 5).
The data were collected using a Computer-Assisted Telephone
Interviewing (CATI)system, which allows responses to be entered
directly into a computerized database as interviews are conducted.
A central polling facility in Hood House on the Durham Campus of
UNH was used to administer the survey. All surveys were conducted
by paid, trained, and professionally supervised interviews.
A probabilistic technique was used to select respondents. The
sample of telephone numbers was chosen randomly from a complete set
of phone directories servicing the entire state of New Hampshire.
Telephone numbers were taken from each directory in proportion to
the number of residential household units serviced by each
directory. A constant was added to the selected numbers to ensure
that both listed and unlisted numbers were included in the sample.
The result of this procedure is a probabilistic sample of all
telephone numbers in the state of New Hampshire. A screening
question at the beginning of the survey ensured that only
registered Republicans or registered Independents who lean toward
the Republican party were included in the poll.
The survey was administered September 5-7, 1995 and includes
complete responses from 385 registered Republican primary voters.
The maximum margin of error for the sample of 385 registered
primary voters is +/-5.0 percent. That means, in theory, in 19
times out of 20, the results found in the sample will differ by no
more than plus or minus 5.0 percent from what would have been
obtained by interviewing all registered Republicans and registered
Independents who lean toward the Republican party in New Hampshire.
In addition to sampling error, the practical difficulties of
conducting any survey of public opinion will introduce other
sources of error into the poll.
==================================================================
Table 1-1
New Hampshire Republican Primary Trial Heat
1st choice 2nd choice
Robert Dole 38% 8%
Pat Buchanan 9 6
Pete Wilson 4 3
Arlen Specter 3 3
Lamar Alexander 4 4
Phil Gramm 5 9
Robert Dornan 1 1
Alan Keyes 1 1
Richard Lugar 1 2
Morry Taylor 1 1
Other 4 7
Unsure 29 55
Total 100% 100%
Cases = 385
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Table 1-2
New Hampshire Republican Primary Trial Heat
Compared by Ideology
Liberal/Moderate Conservative
Robert Dole 32% 47%
Pat Buchanan 6 12
Pete Wilson 5 2
Arlen Specter 4 2
Lamar Alexander 4 3
Phil Gramm 4 7
Robert Dornan 1 1
Alan Keyes 2 1
Richard Lugar 1 1
Morry Taylor 1 0
Other 4 2
Unsure 36 22
Total 100% 100%
Cases (203) (170)
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Table 1-3
New Hampshire Republican Primary Heat
Compared Over Time
02/95 06/95 09/95
Robert Dole 41% 39% 38%
Pat Buchanan 5 6 9
Pete Wilson 2 2 4
Arlen Specter 2 1 3
Lamar Alexander 2 2 4
Phil Gramm 10 3 5
Robert Dornan 0 1 1
Alan Keyes 0 0 1
Richard Lugar 1 1 1
Morry Taylor 0 0 1
Other 16 8 4
Unsure 21 37 29
Total 100% 100% 100%
Cases (316) (316) (385)
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Table 1-4
Likelihood of Voting For First Choice For
The Presidential Nomination Of The Republican Party
Definitely Vote for First Choice 9%
Could Change Mind 67%
Unsure 24%
TOTAL 100%
CASES (385)
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Table 1-5
Favorability Toward Republican Presidential Candidates
Favorable Unfavorable No Opinion Never Heard Of Total
Robert Dole 56% 27 16 1 100%
Phil Gramm 27% 34 31 8 100%
Pat Buchanan 26% 49 23 2 100%
Arlen Specter 12% 25 34 29 100%
L. Alexander 23% 16 38 23 100%
Pete Wilson 17% 28 38 17 100%
Richard Lugar 11% 15 31 43 100%
Robert Dornan 5% 18 24 53 100%
Alan Keyes 3% 21 14 62 100%
Morry Taylor 4% 13 23 60 100%
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Table 1-6
Favorability Toward Republican Presidential Candidates
Compared over Time
Favorable Unfavorable No Opinion Never Heard Total
Bob Dole
Oct 94 62% 27 9 2 100%
Feb 95 71% 19 9 1 100%
Jun 95 56% 28 15 1 100%
Sep 95 56% 27 16 1 100%
Phil Gramm
Oct 94 29% 24 26 21 100%
Feb 95 37% 23 25 15 100%
Jun 95 18% 43 26 13 100%
Sep 95 27% 34 31 8 100%
Pat Buchanan
Oct 94 25% 57 14 4 100%
Feb 95 27% 53 18 2 100%
Jun 95 24% 61 13 2 100%
Sep 95 26% 49 23 2 100%
Arlen Specter
Feb 95 13% 28 30 29 100%
Jun 95 10% 36 25 29 100%
Sep 95 12% 25 34 29 100%
Lamar Alexander
Feb 95 18% 13 34 35 100%
Jun 95 16% 25 27 32 100%
Sep 95 23% 16 38 23 100%
Pete Wilson
Feb 95 28% 19 28 25 100%
Jun 95 19% 32 27 22 100%
Sep 95 17% 28 38 17 100%
Richard Lugar
Feb 95 11% 12 29 48 100%
Jun 95 13% 21 24 42 100%
Sep 95 11% 15 31 43 100%
Robert Dornan
Feb 95 7% 14 25 54 100%
Jun 95 6% 22 18 55 100%
Sep 95 5% 18 24 53 100%
Alan Keyes
Jun 95 4% 22 15 59 100%
Sep 95 3% 21 14 62 100%
Morry Taylor
Sep 95 4% 13 23 60 100%
_________________________________________________________________
Table 1-7
Favorability Toward Republican Presidential Candidates
Compared by Ideology
(Percent Favorable Only)
Liberal/Moderate Conservative
Robert Dole 48 67
Pat Buchanan 21 32
Pete Wilson 16 19
Arlen Specter 13 11
Lamar Alexander 23 23
Phil Gramm 20 35
Robert Dornan 3 8
Alan Keyes 3 4
Richard Lugar 12 11
Morry Taylor 4 4
TOTAL 100% 100%
Cases (203) (170)
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Table 1-8
Should Colin Powell Run for the Presidential
Nomination of the Republican Party
Should Run 53%
Should Not Run 23
Not Opinion 24
TOTAL 100%
CASES (385)
--------------------------------------------------------------------
Table 1-9
Should Colin Powell Run for Presidential
Nomination of the Republican Party
Compared by Ideology
Liberal/Moderate Conservative
Should Run 57% 50%
Should Not Run 21 27
Not Opinion 22 23
TOTAL 100% 100%
CASES (203) (170)
Chi-Square: Not Sig.
_________________________________________________________________
Table 10
Willingness to Consider Voting for an Independent
Third-Party Presidential Candidate in General Election
Would Consider 72%
Would Not Consider 22
Not Opinion 6
TOTAL 100%
CASES (385)
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Table 1-11
Willingness to Consider Voting for an Independent
Third Party Candidate in General Election
Compared by Party Identification
Indep/Lean Republcn. Republcn. Strong Republcn.
Would Consider 76% 76% 64%
Would Not Consider 19 18 28
Not Opinion 5 6 8
TOTAL 100% 100% 100%
CASES (166) (78) (129)
Chi. Square: Not Sig.
_________________________________________________________________
Table 1-12
Have Republicans in Congress Brought the Right
Kind of Change for the Country
Right Kind of Change 51%
Wrong Kind of Change 17
No Effect Either Way(Volunteered) 24
No Opinion 8
TOTAL 100%
CASES (385)
_________________________________________________________________
Table 1-13
Have Republicans in Congress Brought the Right
Kind of Change for the Country
Compared by Party Identification
Independent/Lean Republican Strong
Republican Republican
Right Kind of Change 30% 58% 71%
Wrong Kind of Change 28 15 6
No Effect Either Way(Volunteer) 31 19 18
No Opinion 11 8 5
TOTAL 100% 100% 100%
CASES (166) (78) (129)
Chi Square: < .01
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Table 1-14
Most Important Problem
Facing New Hampshire
(Among Republican Primary Voters Only)
Taxes 24%
Unemployment 15
Economy 11
Education 9
Health Care 5
Welfare 4
State Government Spending 2
Crime 2
Drugs 2
Environment 2
Family Values 2
Other 11
Nothing in Particular 11
TOTAL 100%
CASES (385)
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Table 1-15
Most Important Problem Facing the United States
(Among Republican Primary Voters Only)
Federal Deficit 16%
Unemployment 8
>19%
Economy 11
Health Care 8
Crime 8
Welfare 7
Education 5
Morality 5
>7%
Family Values 2
Poverty 2
Other 26
Nothing in Particular 2
TOTAL 100%
CASES (385)
>From mskuhn@christa.unh.eduFri Sep 15 11:51:45 1995
Date: Fri, 15 Sep 1995 09:55:57 -0400 (EDT)
From: Mark S Kuhn
To: mkuhn@hopper.unh.edu
Subject: survey questions
Questionnaire used in this study
(Boston Herald and WCVB TV: NH Presidential Primary Poll)
>int1< Hello, my name is (fill name), and I'm calling from the
University of New Hampshire Survey Center. We're
conducting a brief survey to find out what people think
about certain issues here in New Hampshire, and we'd like
to ask you a few questions.
<1> Eligible Respondent (goto g1)
<2> Appointment (goto app)
<3> Language/Physical Barrier (goto x1)
<4> Not in Service/Disconnected (goto x1)
<5> Business/No Private Residence (goto npr)
<6> No Eligible Respondent (goto x1)
<9> Refusal (goto ref)
====>
>g1< I want to assure you that your telephone number was chosen
randomly, and all of your responses are complete
confidential.
First, are you a registered voter?
If yes, ask: Are you registered as a democrat,
Independent, Republican, or something else?
<0> No - not registered (terminate)
<1> Democrat (terminate)
<2> Independent
<3> Republican
<8> Other (terminate)
<9> No answer (terminate)
===>
>g2< Apart from how you are registered, do you usually think of
yourself as a Democrat, an Independent, a Republican, or
something else?
If Democrat or Republican, ask: If Independent, ask:
"Do you consider yourself a "Do you lean toward
strong Dem/Rep?" either the Democratic
or Republican Party?"
<1> Strong Democrat
<2> Not strong Democrat
<3> Lean Democratic
<4> Independent NO LEAN
<5> Lean Republican
<6> Not strong Republican
<7> Strong Republican
<8> Libertarian (volunteered)
<88> Other
<99> Refused
===>
If registered Republican or Independent
>g3< As you know the New Hampshire presidential primary
election will be held early next year. How closely have
you followed the campaign thus far?
Read Responses
<1> Very closely
<2> Somewhat closely
<3> Not very closely
===>
>4a< Now I'd like to read you a list of people who May be
running in the Republican primary for president in the next
election in 1996. As I read each name, please tell me if you have
a favorable or unfavorable opinion of this person -- or if you've
never heard of him or her.
(NOTE: RANDOM ORDER ADMINISTRATION)
First, Senate Majority Leader, Robert Dole?
<1> Favorable
<2> Unfavorable
<8> Heard of: but no opinion
<9> Never heard of person
===>
Texas Senator Phil Gramm?
Pennsylvania Senator, Arlen Specter?
Political Commentator, Pat Buchanan?
California Governor, Pete Wilson?
Talk show host, Alan Keyes?
California Congressman, Robert Dornan?
Indiana Senator, Richard Lugar?
Former Governor of Tennessee, Lamar Alexander?
Businessman, Morry Taylor?
If Republican or Independent:
>g5< Suppose the teach of the people's whose names I just mentioned
were running for the presidential nomination of the Republican
party in the 1996 New Hampshire primary. Which of the candidates
we just talked about would you be most likely to vote for?
<1> Bob Dole
<2> Phil Gramm
<3> Arlen Specter
<4> Pat Buchanan
<5> Pete Wilson
<6> Alan Keyes
<7> Robert Dornan
<8> Richard Lugar
<9> Lamar Alexander
<10> Morry Taylor
<11> Colin Powell (volunteered)
<88> Don't know/unsure
<99> OTHER
===>
>g6< Which of these candidates would be you second choice?
<1> Bob Dole
<2> Phil Gramm
<3> Arlen Specter
<4> Pat Buchanan
<5> Pete Wilson
<6> Alan Keyes
<7> Robert Dornan
<8> Richard Lugar
<9> Lamar Alexander
<10> Morry Taylor
<11> Colin Powell (volunteered)
<88> Don't know/Unsure
<99> OTHER
===>
>g7< Thinking about your first choice for the presidential
nomination of the Republican party, do you think that you will
definitely vote for that candidate, or could you change your mind
between now and the primary election?
<1> Definitely vote for that candidate
<2> Could change mind
<9> Don't know/Unsure
===>
>g8< As you may know , General Colin Powell has expressed
interest in the possibility of running for President in 1996. What
is your view: Do you think General Colin Powell should or should
not run for the presidential nomination of the Republican party?
<1> Should
<2> Should Not
<9> No Opinion
===>
>g9< Apart from who you plan to support for the presidential
nomination of the Republican party, do you think you would or would
not be willing to consider voting for an Independent third-party
candidate in the 1996 general election for president?
<1> Would
<2> Would Not
<9> No Opinion
===>
>g10< Do you generally think the Republicans in Congress have
mostly brought the right kind of change to the country, or mostly
brought the wrong kind of change?
<1> Right kind of change
<2> Wrong kind of change
<3> Not much change either way
<9> No opinion
===>
>g11< Are you generally satisfied or dissatisfied with the way
things are going in the United States at this time?
Do you feel that strongly or moderate?
<1> Strongly satisfied
<2> Moderately satisfied
<3> Don't know (volunteered)
<4> Moderately dissatisfied
<5> Strongly dissatisfied
===>
>g12< What do you consider the most important problem facing
New Hampshire today?
DO NOT READ
<1> Unemployment <10> Drugs/Alcohol
<2> Economy <11> Transportation
<3> State Govt Spending <12> Environment
<4> Taxes <13> Terrorism
<5> Welfare <14> Morality/Ethics
<6> Health Care <15> AIDS
<7> Crime/gangs <16> Poverty
<8> Education <17> Family/Family values
<9> Abortion <18> Gun Control
<88> OTHER
<99> No Answer
===>
>g13< What do you consider the most important problem facing
the United States today?
DO NOT READ
<1> Unemployment <10> Drugs/Alcohol
<2> Economy <11> Transportation
<3> State Govt Spending <12> Environment
<4> Taxes <13> Terrorism
<5> Welfare <14> Morality/Ethics
<6> Health Care <15> AIDS
<7> Crime/Gangs <16> Poverty
<8> Education <17> Family/Family values
<9> Abortion <18> Gun control
<19> Military spending
<88> OTHER
<99> Do Not Answer
===>
>d1< Now just a few questions for statistical purposes.
First, in what year were you born?
Only enter the last (2) years!
19 <00-76> Year Born
18 <90-99> Year Born
<80> Refused
===>
>d2< In politics today, do you generally consider yourself
liberal, conservative, or moderate?
<1> Liberal
<2> Moderate
<3> Conservative
<9> Refused
===>
>d3< Which of the following categories best describes your
family's total annual income for the past year?
<1> Under $10,000
<2> 10-20,000
<3> 20-30,000
<4> 30-40,000
<5> 40-50,000
<6> 50-60,000
<7> 60-70,000
<8> 70-80,000
<9> 80-90,000 or
<10> Over 90,000 a year
<99> Refused
===>
>conc< THAT WAS THE LAST QUESTION. THANK YOU VERY MUCH FOR
YOUR TIME. YOUR COMMENTS ARE GREATLY APPRECIATED.
>gr< Enter the gender of the RESPONDENT:
<1> Female
<2> Male