UNH Survey Center poll. Polling data and analysis received from UNH Survey Center, Kelly Myers, Director. Released on November 5, 1995
Table 1-1 New Hampshire Republican Presidential Primary Trial Heat (among likely New Hampshire primary voters) Without Powell With Powell Powell --% 27% Dole 36 27 Forbes 8 6 Buchanan 6 5 Gramm 6 4 Alexander 4 3 Lugar 2 1 Specter 1 1 Keyes 1 1 Dornan 0 0 Taylor 0 0 Other 4 2 Unsure 32 23 TOTAL 100% 100% CASES (448) (448) Table 1-2 NEW HAMPSHIRE REPUBLICAN PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARY TRIAL HEAT Compared by ideology Without Powell With Powell Lib/Mod Conser Lib/Mod Cons e e te e Powell --% --% 34% 17% Dole 32 44 23 35 Forbes 7 9 4 7 Buchanan 3 10 3 8 Gramm 4 9 3 7 Alexander 6 2 4 2 Lugar 1 1 1 1 Specter 2 1 1 1 Keyes 0 1 0 1 Dornan 0 0 0 0 Taylor 0 0 0 0 Other 4 3 3 2 Unsure 41 20 24 19 TOTAL 100% 100% 100% 100% CASES (244) (184) (244) (184) Table 1-3 NEW HAMPSHIRE REPUBLICAN PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARY TRIAL HEAT Compared Over Time (Without Colin Powell in the Race) Nov. 1-3 Jun. 5-7 Feb. 15-16 Dole 36% 39% 41% Forbes 8 -- -- Buchanan 6 6 5 Gramm 6 3 10 Alexander 4 2 2 Lugar 2 1 1 Specter 1 1 2 Keyes 1 0 -- Dornan 0 1 0 Taylor 0 -- -- Other 4 10 9 Unsure 32 37 30 TOTAL 100% 100% 100% CASES (448) (316) (316) Table 1-4 Likelihood of Voting for First Choice For The Presidential Nomination Of The Republican Party Nov. 1-3 Sep. 5-7 Definately Vote for First Choice 19% 9% Could Change Mind 65 67 Unsure 16 24 TOTAL 100% 100% CASES (448) (385) Table 2-1 FAVORABILITY RATINGS OF REPUBLICAN PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATES Nov. 1-3 June 5-7 Feb. 15-16 Powell Favorable 59% 61% 69% Unfavorable 16 16 11 No opinion 23 20 16 Never Heard of 2 3 4 Dole Favorable 53% 56% 71% Unfavorable 28 28 19 No opinion 19 15 9 Never Heard of 0 1 1 Forbes Favorable 27% --% --% Unfavorable 27 -- -- No opinion 34 -- -- Never Heard of 12 -- -- Buchanan Favorable 24% 24% 27% Unfavorable 55 61 53 No opinion 20 13 18 Never Heard of 1 2 2 Gramm Favorable 26% 18% 37% Unfavorable 43 43 23 No opinion 25 26 25 Never Heard of 6 13 15 Alexander Favorable 22% 16% 18% Unfavorable 34 25 13 No opinion 29 27 34 Never Heard of 15 32 35 Lugar Favorable 10% 13% 11% Unfavorable 34 21 12 No opinion 28 24 29 Never heard of 28 42 48 Specter Favorable 11% 10% 13% Unfavorable 41 36 28 No opinion 28 25 30 Never heard of 20 29 29 Keyes Favorable 6% 4% --% Unfavorable 37 22 -- No opinion 17 15 -- Never heard of 40 59 -- Dornan Favorable 7% 6% 7% Unfavorable 30 22 14 No opinion 20 18 25 Never heard of 43 54 54 Taylor Favorable 6% --% --% Unfavorable 27 -- -- No opinion 24 -- -- Never heard of 43 -- -- Table 2-2 Favorability Toward Republican Presidential Candidates Compared by Ideology (percent favorable only) Liberal/Moderate Conservative Powell 63 56 Dole 44 66 Forbes 23 32 Buchanan 16 34 Gramm 19 35 Alexander 23 23 Lugar 6 15 Specter 10 14 Keyes 3 11 Dornan 7 8 Taylor 3 10 TOTAL 100% 100% CASES (244) (184) Table 3-1 DO YOUR VIEWS AGREE OR DISAGREE WITH DOLE AND POWELL ON IMPORTANT ISSUES Dole Powell Agree 39% 35% Disagree 28 11 Unsure/No opinion 33 54 TOTAL 100% 100% CASES (448) (448) Table 3-2 DO YOUR VIEWS AGREE OR DISAGREE WITH DOLE AND POWELL ON IMPORTANT ISSUES (compared on ideology) Dole Powell Lib/Mod Con Lib/Mod Con Agree 28% 55% 42% 27% Disagree 37 14 8 14 Unsure/No opinion 35 31 50 59 TOTAL 100% 100% 100% 100% CASES (244) (184) (244) (184) Table 3-3 PERCEPTION OF IDEOLOGY OF DOLE AND POWELL Dole Powell Very Conservative 18% 3% >56% >19% Somewhat Conservative 38 16 Moderate 23 35 Somewhat Liberal 4 9 >5% >10% Very Liberal 1 1 Unsure 16 36 TOTAL 100% 100% CASES (448) (448) Table 3-4 PERCEPTION OF IDEOLOGY OF DOLE AND POWELL Compared By Ideology Dole Powell Lib/Mod Cons Lib/Mod Cons Very Conservative 20% 16% 2% 4% >55% >60% >16% >24% Somewhat Conservative 35 44 14 20 Moderate 25 21 41 29 Somewhat Liberal 3 5 7 11 >4% >6% >8% >12% Very Liberal 1 1 1 1 Unsure 16 13 35 35 TOTAL 100% 100% 100% 100% CASES (244) (184) (244) (184) Table 3-5 PERCEPTION OF PRESIDENTIAL LEADERSHIP CHARACTERISTICS (Percent who say "apply" only) Dole Powell He has the personality and character needed to be 61 65 president...................... He has the right kind of experience to 77 33 be president...................... He cares about the issues which are 52 54 important to people like me..................... He would bring needed change to 32 44 government.................... He would be effective pushing through the kinds of policies the country 43 38 needs....... He is a strong and decisive leader............................... 56 69 He would say anything to get elected president..................... 47 16 He is too liberal towin the support of most 9 13 Republicans............... CASES = 448 Table 3-6 CAN A BLACK CANDIDATE LIKE COLIN POWELL GET ENOUGH SUPPORT FROM WHITE VOTERS TO GET ELECTED PRESIDENT Could get enough 71% support Could not 15 Unsure 14 TOTAL 100% CASES (448) METHODOLOGICAL PREFACE The results of this report are based on a telephone survey of likely Republican primary voters in New Hampshire. Likely voters must be registered to vote in New Hampshire and say they "probably" or "definitely" will vote in the REPUBLICAN presidential primary. The survey was administered by the University of New Hampshire Survey Center. The poll was sponsored by the Boston Herald. The data were collected using a Computer-Assisted Telephone Interviewing (CATI) system, which allows responses to be entered directly into a computerized database as interviews are conducted. A central polling facility in Hood House on the Durham Campus of UNH was used to administer the survey. All surveys were conducted by paid, trained, and professionally supervised interviewers. A probabilistic technique was used to select respondents. The sample of telephone numbers was chosen randomly from a complete set of telephone directories servicing the entire state of New Hampshire. Telephone numbers were taken from each directory in proportion to the number of residential household units serviced by each directory. A constant was added to the selected numbers to ensure that both listed and unlisted numbers were included in the sample. The result of this procedure is a probabilistic sample of all telephone numbers in the state of New Hampshire. A screening question at the beginning of the survey ensured that only likely Republican primary voters were included in the poll. The survey was administered November 1-3, 1995 and includes complete responses from 448 likely Republican primary voters. The maximum margin of error for the sample of 448 registered primary voters is +/- 4.6 percent. That means, in theory, in 19 times out of 20, the results found in the sample will differ by no more than plus or minus 4.6 percent from what would have been obtained by interviewing all likely Republican primary voters in New Hampshire. In addition to sampling error, the practical difficulties of conducting any survey of public opinion will introduce other sources of error into the poll. THE 1996 NEW HAMPSHIRE REPUBLICAN PRIMARY Republican Presidential Primary Race Without Powell in the Race Table 1-1 shows which candidate for the presidential nomination of the Republican party voters would choose if the election were held today, and Colin Powell were not in the race. Without Powell, Robert Dole remains the front-runner with 36 percent of the vote. Newcomer Steve Forbes would come in second place with 8 percent, followed by Pat Buchanan (6%), Phil Gramm (6%), Lamar Alexander (4%), and Richard Lugar (2%). With Powell in the Race If Colin Powell were in the race, he would cut deeply into Dole's lead. In fact, the poll shows that Powell (27%) would be tied with Dole (27%) for first place. Each of the other candidates would continue to register single-digit polling figures. The Impact of Ideology Table 1-2 shows vote choice for Republican primary hopefuls compared by ideology. Without Powell in the race, Dole enjoys a healthy lead among liberal and moderate voters (32%), as well as among conservative voters (44%). If Powell enters the race, many liberal and moderate voters would choose Powell (34%) over Dole (23%). But Dole (35%) would retain a lead over Powell (17%) among conservative voters. The Race Without Powell Table 1-3 shows that even if Powell does not enter the race, there is evidence that Bob Dole's support may be eroding somewhat. In the most recent poll, Dole attracts 36 percent of the vote, down from 41 percent found in the February poll. The Candidates' Support It is important to stress that the election remains highly volatile. Only 19 percent of voters say they "definitely" plan to vote for their candidate on primary election day. That means that 81 percent of "likely Republican primary voters" are either "unsure" (16%) who they plan to vote for, or say they could change their mind between now and the election (65%). Favorability Ratings Table 2-1 shows favorability ratings for each of the possible Republican presidential candidates under investigation. In the most recent poll, Powell receives the highest favorability rating (59%). He also receives a relatively low unfavorable rating (16%). Dole also receives a high favorability rating (53%), but his negatives are somewhat higher (28%) than Powell's. Perhaps more important, the poll shows that Dole's favorability rating has dipped from 71 to 53 percent since the February poll. His unfavorable rating has also increased. (It should be noted that Powell's favorability rating also dropped from 69 to 59 percent during the same time period). Despite a strong showing in the 1992 Republican presidential primary against George Bush, Pat Buchanan's popularity among New Hampshire Republicans is very low. Only 24 percent of Republican primary voters view him favorably, while over half (55%) view him unfavorably. Despite a strong third-place showing in the most recent poll, newcomer Steve Forbes is not well known among voters. Notice that nearly half (46%) have either have no opinion of him (34%) or have never heard of him (12%). Table 2-2 shows favorability ratings for each of the candidates under investigation broken down by ideology. As shown, Powell receives high marks from liberal and moderate voters (63%) and conservative voters (56%). Dole, on the other hand, receives much better ratings among conservative voters (66%) than among liberal and moderate voters (44%). Views of Dole and Powell The poll results suggest that Dole is better known than Powell among likely Republican primary voters. But this does not necessarily produce an advantage for Dole for the following reasons: 1. Dole has a higher unfavorable rating (28%) than Powell (16%) [Table 2-1]. 2. An equal number of voters agree with the views of Dole (39%) and Powell (35%) on issues they consider important [Table 3-1]. But many voters (28%) disagree with Dole on issues which they consider important, while only 11 percent disagree with Powell. Of course, this figure could increase as voters learn more about Colin Powell's position on the issues. But at the present time voters' lack of knowledge works to Powell's advantage. 3. Dole is perceived as a conservative by most voters (56%), while only 16 percent are unsure of his ideological views [Table 3-3]. Most voters either do not know Powell's ideological views (36%), or they think he is a moderate (35%). Notice that only 10 percent think Powell is a liberal. But ideology is not the sole criteria used by Republican primary voters to choose a candidate. This is evidenced by Powell's strong showing in the polls. The most recent poll also shows that only 13 percent of Republican voters think Powell is "too liberal to win the support of most Republicans" [Table 3-5]. The strategic argument that Powell would make a better candidate against Bill Clinton in a general election because of his broad ideological appeal also produces an advantage for Powell, even though the conventional wisdom holds that the primary process tends to be dominated by the conservative wing of the Republican party. This could work to Powell's advantage in 1996 since the absence of a Democratic primary race could mean that a record number of Independent voters (who are generally more moderate) will vote in the Republican primary. 4. Most voters think that Dole (61%) and Powell (65%) have "the personal qualities and character needed to be president." Most Republican voters also think that both candidates are strong and decisive leaders, and both care about issues which are important to them. 5. One of Dole's primary advantages over Powell is his experience. Over three- fourths (77%) of Republican voters think Dole "has the right kind of experience to be president," compared to only 33 percent who think Powell has the right kind of experience. 6. There is evidence that some voters hold a guarded view toward Dole's candidacy. Notice that nearly half (47%) of voters think that Dole "would say anything to get elected president." Only 16 percent of voters think that statement applies to Powell. The Race Issue According to voters, race is not a factor which would limit Powell's ability to get elected president [Table 3-6]. Seventy-one percent of voters say that Powell could get enough support from white voters to get elected, while only 15 percent think he would not be able to get enough white support.