Dartmouth College/WMUR-TV
Conducted Jan. 29-Feb. 2
Poll methodology (details at end of poll)
Likely GOP voters
The poll was the second wave of a "panel survey" in which respondents
who were interviewed in October were re-interviewed from January 29 to
February 2. Tables 1-8 are based on sample of likely Republican
primary voters; Tables 9-13 are based on a sample of all New Hampshire
voters.
Table 1
Movement in Candidate Support
Percentage of Percentage of
Voters Lost Voters Gained
Dole 49 24
Forbes 32 78
Buchanan 47 51
Alexander 68 79
Gramm 70 61
Gains and losses
Table 2
The Destination of Dole's Losses and the Source of Forbes' Gains
Dole's Losses Forbes' Gains
Dole 51 23
Forbes 18 22
Buchanan 6 7
Alexander 10 5
Gramm 4 11
Others 5 14
Undecided 7 18
Switchers
Table 3
A Profile of Candidate Switchers
Switchers Standpatters
Republican 58 64
Democrat 7 1
Independent 35 36
Liberal/Moderate 51 37
Conservative 49 64
N of Cases (265) (151)
Ideology and the Primary Vote
Table 4
New Hampshire Republican Primary
Trial Heat by Ideology
Jan. 29 - Feb. 2 Jan. 7 - 10
Liberal/ Conserv Liberal/ Conserv
Moderate Moderate
Dole 21 28 43 33
Forbes 31 28 18 17
Buchanan 9 15 3 16
Alexander 15 5 9 6
Gramm 4 7 5 6
Undecided 13 11 13 11
All Others/
Wouldn't Vote 9 9 10 12
N of Cases (188) (219) (215) (284)
Note: This question was asked of likely Republican primary voters. Liberals
and moderates are combined due to the small number of likely Republican primary
voters who consider themselves liberal. Margin of Error: 7%
Candidate Favorability Ratings
Table 5
Candidate Favorability Ratings Among
Likely Republican Primary Voters
1/29-2/2 Oct. 22-25
Jan. 7-10 Oct. 1-4
Dole
Favorable 38 47 44 42
Unfavorable 44 29 28 33
Undecided 17 23 25 22
Haven't Heard Enough 1 2 3 3
Forbes
Favorable 42 37 21 14
Unfavorable 27 24 21 14
Undecided 28 26 21 15
Haven't Heard Enough 4 14 37 20
Buchanan
Favorable 30 29 22 26
Unfavorable 51 49 48 48
Undecided 16 18 22 17
Haven't Heard Enough 3 5 8 9
Alexander
Favorable 29 31 21 21
Unfavorable 27 18 18 21
Undecided 28 27 25 23
Haven't Heard Enough 16 24 35 35
Gramm
Favorable 30 29 21 25
Unfavorable 41 40 39 33
Undecided 24 24 26 22
Haven't Heard Enough 6 7 14 20
Keyes
Favorable 11 17 8 9
Unfavorable 24 18 18 12
Undecided 12 13 14 9
Haven't Heard Enough 53 53 59 71
Lugar
Favorable 17 15 8 8
Unfavorable 38 27 25 21
Undecided 18 22 18 15
Haven't Heard Enough 28 36 48 56
Dornan
Favorable 8 6 5 4
Unfavorable 29 20 28 16
Undecided 9 15 12 7
Haven't Heard Enough 55 59 58 74
Taylor
Favorable 8 6 6 6
Unfavorable 41 25 28 14
Undecided 14 18 14 8
Haven't Heard Enough 38 51 52 72
Merrill
Favorable 59 -- 54 --
Unfavorable 22 -- 19 --
Undecided 13 -- 17 --
Haven't Heard Enough 6 -- 9 --
Q: I'm going to read the names of some presidential candidates and political
figures. For each candidate, please tell me whether your opinion of that
person is favorable, not favorable, or undecided. If you haven't heard enough
about someone, just tell me and we will go on to the next name. How about
[insert name]? Is your opinion of [insert name] favorable, not favorable,
undecided, or haven't you heard enough yet to have an opinion? Note: This
question was asked of likely Republican primary voters. Margin of Error: +/-
5%
Merrill's nod
Table 6
The Effect of Merrill's Endorsement of Dole
Favorable toward Unfavorable toward
Merrill Merrill
Dole 29 14
Forbes 22 45
Buchanan 14 4
Alexander 10 10
Gramm 7 3
Others 5 14
Undecided 12 9
N of Case (246) (91)
Note: This question was asked of likely Republican primary voters. Margin of
Error: Favorable on Merrill: +/- 6%; Unfavorable: +/- 10%
The Flat Tax
Table 7
Support for the Flat Tax Across Income Levels
All $0-19K $20-29K $30-39K $40-59K $60K+
Support 50 34 41 62 54 56
Oppose 31 49 36 18 32 27
Don't Know 19 17 19 19 14 17
N of Cases (421) (36) (48) (60) (107) (94)
Q: There has been a lot of discussion lately on replacing the current federal
graduated income tax with a flat tax on income. Would you support or oppose
replacing the current tax system with a flat tax system? Note: This question
was asked of likely Republican primary voters. Margin of Error: All: +/- 5%;
$0-19K: +/-17%;
$20-29K: +/-14%;
$30-39K: +/-13%;
$40-59K & $60K+: +/-10%
Table 8
Agreement with Arguments Supporting or Opposing Flat Tax
Agree Disagree Don't Know
More Fair 48 33 19
Decrease Taxes 35 40 25
Decrease IRS 69 14 16
Home Ownership
More Difficult 38 40 21
Increase Economic
Growth 42 29 27
Increase Budget
Deficit 26 45 28
Q: People have given many reasons for supporting or opposing the flat tax
proposal. I'm going to read you some of these reasons and would like you to
tell me whether you agree or disagree with each reason.
- A flat tax would be more fair than the current graduated tax.
- A flat tax would decrease the amount I pay in taxes.
- A flat tax would decrease the size of the IRS.
- A flat tax would make it more difficult for people to own their own homes
if it eliminated home mortgage deductions.
- A flat tax would increase economic growth.
- A flat tax would increase the budget deficit.
Note: This question was asked of likely Republican primary voters. Margin of
Error: +/- 5%
Table 9a
Clinton Match Ups: Partisanship
All Repub. Demos Ind Other
Clinton 54 23 90 62 55
Dole 34 68 8 21 9
Other 3 1 0 6 0
Undecided 4 4 1 5 18
Wouldn't Vote 5 5 1 7 18
Clinton 50 24 83 55 55
Forbes 36 61 10 31 9
Other 2 3 0 2 0
Undecided 9 9 7 9 18
Wouldn't Vote 4 3 1 4 18
N of Cases (556) (182) (104) (257) (11)
Q: If the 1996 presidential election were being held today, and the candidates
were Bill Clinton, the Democrat, and Bob Dole, the Republican, for whom would
you vote?
Q: If the 1996 presidential election were being held today, and the candidates
were Bill Clinton, the Democrat, and Steve Forbes, the Republican, for whom
would you vote?
Note: These questions were asked of all New Hampshire voters. Margin of
Error: All Voters: 5%; Republicans 7%; Democrats: 10%; Independents: 6%;
Other: 30%.
Table 9b
Clinton Match Ups: Ideology
Liberal Moderate Conservative
Clinton 77 61 33
Dole 11 28 54
Other 3 3 3
Undecided 4 4 4
Wouldn't Vote 4 4 7
Clinton 71 53 33
Forbes 20 30 54
Other 1 2 3
Undecided 5 12 7
Wouldn't Vote 3 3 4
N of Cases (124) (209) (197)
Note: This question was asked of all New Hampshire voters. Margin of Error:
Liberals: 9%, Moderates and Conservatives: 7%.
Table 10
Favorability Ratings of Candidates and
Political Leaders Among the Entire Electorate
Favorable Unfavorable Undecided Haven't Heard E
nough
Clinton 42 38 20 1
Dole 27 51 19 2
Forbes 33 33 28 6
Gingrich 16 67 13 4
Merrill 41 30 19 10
Bob Smith 26 30 21 23
Note: This question was asked of all New Hampshire voters. Margin of
Error: +/- 5%
Table 11
Clinton Job Approval
1/29-2/2 Jan. 7-10 Oct. 22-25
All Voters 60 48 51
Republicans 37 21 30
Democrats 87 80 75
Independents 67 52 54
Q: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Bill Clinton is handling his job as
president? Note: Numbers are percent of those surveyed approving of the job
done. This question was asked of all New Hampshire voters. Margin of Error:
Jan. 29-Feb. 2: All: 5%, Republicans 7%, Democrats 10% and Independents: 6%.
Jan. 7-10 and Oct. 22-25: All Voters: 4%; Republicans and Independents: 5%;
Democrats: 6%.
Table 12
Congress Job Approval
1/29-2/2 Oct. 22-25
All Voters 24 32
Republicans 56 49
Democrats 8 18
Independents 33 29
Q: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Congress is handling its job?
Note: Numbers are percent of those surveyed approving of the job done. Margin
of Error: Jan. 29-Feb. 2: All: 5%; Republicans 7%; Democrats 10% and
Independents: 6%. Jan. 7-10 and Oct. 22-25: All Voters: 4%; Republicans and
Independents: 5%; Democrats: 6%.
Even with Clinton's current popularity, a majority of voters would like to see
a third party candidate on the ballot if Clinton and Dole are the two major
party nominees (see Table 13).
Table 13
Desire for an Independent Candidate
Satisfied with Choice 39 precent
Would Like Independent 61
Q: If Bill Clinton and Bob Dole were the Democratic and Republican candidates
on the presidential ballot in 1996, would you be satisfied with that choice, or
would you want to see an Independent candidate as well? Note: This question
was asked of all New Hampshire voters. Margin of Error: +/- 5%.
Poll Methodology
Five hundred fifty-six telephone interviews were completed with New
Hampshire residents 18 years of age or older from January 29 through
February 4. Ninety percent of the first wave of interviews was
conducted October 22 to 25 with the other 10% conducted October 1 to
4. Of this group of 556, 135 respondents identified with the
Democratic party or were Independents who said they would definitely
not vote in the Republican primary and received an abbreviated
interview. The remaining 421 identified with the Republican party or
were Independents and received a longer survey. A few Democrats who
said they would definitely vote in the Republican primary also
received the long survey. This group was asked a series of questions
that are known to predict voter turnout. The responses to these
questions and the respondents' reported party identification were used
to compute a "likely vote" weight which was applied to the data so
that the responses of those more likely to vote are weighted more
heavily than those less likely to vote. This method assumes that
Republicans are more likely to vote in the Republican primary than
Independents, but it does not assume that all Republicans or all
Independents are equally likely to vote. Additionally, partisanship is
based on a question asking the respondent whether he considers himself
a Republican, Democrat or Independent. It is not whether the
respondent is registered as a Republican, Democrat or Independent. The
final weighted sample of likely Republican primary voters is made up
of 60% Republicans, 36% Independents and 4% Democrats. The reported
margins of error are based on a 95 percent confidence interval. It
differs somewhat for every question and is noted under each table.