Why Dole Might Star As the Comeback Kid By Kurt Shillinger Staff writer of The Christian Science Monitor MANCHESTER, N.H. HE'S finished. "I guess we now refer to him as the former front-runner," said Tom Brokaw of NBC. "Even though he is still called the leading candidate in some places, he does not look like he'll be on the presidential stage much longer," wrote Boston Globe columnist Robert Healy. Such was the reporting of Ronald Reagan's early demise after losing to George Bush in the 1980 Iowa caucuses. It happens every four years: Iowa or New Hampshire offers a surprise, and the press and pundits dream of dark horses and brokered conventions. This year's losing headline goes to Bob Dole, the senator from Kansas who faltered this week in New Hampshire. While Pat Buchanan surges (see story, Page 5) and Lamar Alexander emerges, many question whether Mr. Dole can go the distance. True, no Republican in the modern era has lost the Granite State primary and won the nomination. But front-runners, especially on the GOP side, almost always pull through. They enjoy the benefits of party money and party support, keys to winning later primaries. In other words, don't send Dole back to Russell, Kan., yet. "Is Dole damaged?" asks Charles Cook, a political analyst in Washington. "Yes. Was George Bush damaged in 1988 after losing Iowa? Yes. Ultimately, Dole's got money in the bank that will allow him to compete in a way that Pat Buchanan and Lamar Alexander can't." Money isn't everything. If it were, Steve Forbes and Sen. Phil Gramm, would still be major contenders. Dole outspent Buchanan roughly 7 to 1 in New Hampshire and fell one percentage point short. But as the process now turns to rapid-fire multistate primaries 26 states in about four weeks Dole has money, a national organization, and broad recognition. That's what helped Walter Mondale recover after losing to Gary Hart in New Hampshire in 1984. It will be even more important this year, under a schedule that allows little time for walks through towns and across states. Buchanan's upset in New Hampshire is likely to jolt the GOP establishment into action. The former commentator's tough-trade policies and often-strident social rhetoric worry mainstream Republicans hoping to make the party more inclusive. Buchanan's Granite State victory was a defeat for the party establishment as much as for Dole, who had almost every major state official pounding the pavement for him. But in coming weeks, such support is likely to be more important, as voters get less direct exposure to candidates. Dole has the Bush brothers George, the governor of Texas, and Jeb, chairman of the Florida state GOP ready to help deliver the two big Southern states on Super Tuesday, and Gov. Pete Wilson is directing the effort in California. Some question whether the party, or the big-money contributors, will think Dole has been too damaged to stay with. But switching to Alexander, the alternative mainstream candidate left in the race, is unlikely. He's still relatively unknown. "When an underdog candidate makes a breakthrough in Iowa or New Hampshire," Mr. Cook says, "it takes about three or four weeks for the money to follow. Lamar Alexander doesn't have that kind of time." The Alexander camp is banking on the South. That gives them only a week to raise enough money to wage a credible fight in South Carolina on March 2 and Super Tuesday 10 days later. Time is crucial. If he can't strike fast, it will become a two-man race. "Lamar Alexander has to have the guts to be willing to do a number on Dole," says Kevin Phillips, a political analyst in Bethesda, Md. "If he doesn't, he's got no chance." Meanwhile, despite the loss in New Hampshire, party insiders continue to view Dole as the only candidate who can unite social conservatives, who mistrust Alexander on issues such as abortion, and economic conservatives, who mistrust Buchanan on issues such as trade. Dole came out swinging after the New Hampshire primary, dismissing Alexander outright and characterizing the race as a choice between "the mainstream and the extreme." But even as he drums Buchanan, Dole is taking some of his rival's themes. "Dole has to co-opt Pat Buchanan's message," says Ron Kaufman, a GOP consultant. "Buchanan's answers aren't right, but he's talking about real people's problems people who are afraid they'll go to work and get a pink slip. Dole better let those people know he understands." (Copyright 1996, The Christian Science Publishing Society. Used by permission.)