Portsmouth Herald
RAN 2/21/96 Pg. A1
N.H. VOTE MAKES IT A 3-MAN RACE
By Steve Haberman 
Herald Staff
   Yesterday's New Hampshire Republican primary pitted popular Gov. Steve
Merrill against the state's largest newspaper, the Manchester Union Leader,
and it was Merrill who lost, said University of New Hampshire pollster Kelly
Myers.
   ``Credit has to be given to the Manchester Union Leader,'' Myers said in
analyzing why political commentator Pat Buchanan upset Senate Majority Leader
Bob Dole yesterday. ``Buchanan carried Manchester with 38 percent. The
campaign pitted the newspaper against Gov. Merrill.''
   Myers said Buchanan ran an excellent race that brought together two large
voting blocs: the conservative Republicans with his message of conservative
values, and blue-collar independents with a message of economic nationalism.
   The UNH pollster said Buchanan's victory had little to do with his strong
showing against George Bush four years earlier. ``In 1992, it was a protest
vote,'' Myers said. ``This year, it was this interesting coalition.''
   Myers called Dole's showing ``disappointing,'' but said not to count the
Kansas senator out. With his nationwide organization and large campaign war
chest, Dole remains a viable candidate despite the fact that the loss
yesterday shows him to be ``vulnerable,'' Myers said.
   ``Coming out of tonight, Dole faces the most difficult battle,'' Myers
said, ``but Buchanan will still be a tough sell (as far as getting his
party's nomination).''
   It was a lack of message that caused the Senate majority leader's loss
yesterday, said American Research Group pollster Dick Bennett. 
   ``Dole wasn't a strong candidate,'' he said. ``He wasn't talking about
what the people of New Hampshire wanted to hear. He never gave them a reason
to vote for him.''
   In contrast, Myers called former Tennessee Gov. Lamar Alexander's
third-place finish ``good news'' for that campaign. Both Alexander and Dole
appeal to traditional Republicans and if one gets out of the race for any
reason, the other will pick up all the votes, the UNH pollster predicted.
   As for New Jersey publisher Steve Forbes, Myers predicts his distant
fourth-place showing foreshadows the end of his campaign.
   ``No matter what he says, Forbes is out of the race,'' he said. ``What New
Hampshire has done is limit this to a three-candidate race.''
   Myers also commented on what made the 1996 New Hampshire Republican
presidential primary unique.
   ``This primary will be remembered as the one in which the most money was
spent and how little it accomplished,'' he said, ``and for the tremendous
negativity.''