Portsmouth Herald
RAN 2/21/96, Pg. A1
By Steve Haberman 
Herald Staff
   In a state known for political upsets, commentator Pat Buchanan's victory
over Senate Majority Leader Bob Dole in the New Hampshire Republican primary
yesterday was still a major surprise.
   It apparently was so much of a jolt that professional pollsters and
prominent Republicans went long into the night before they could bring
themselves to believe it.
   ``I don't think Pat Buchanan will win,'' American Research Group pollster
Dick Bennett said just minutes after both CNN and ABC News predicted the
Buchanan upset with just more than 30 percent of the vote counted. ``The more
traditional Republican areas still need to be counted.''
   Bennett's statements echoed those made by New Hampshire's 1st District
Congressman Bill Zeliff, Dole's New Hampshire campaign chairman, earlier in
the evening. ``This is the only poll that counts,'' Zeliff said.
``Organization does count. New Hampshire is not going to vote for Pat
Buchanan.
   But vote for Buchanan it did. With 90 percent of the precincts reporting,
Buchanan led Dole by just 1,500 votes. Buchanan had 49,028 votes to Dole's
47,530. Lamar Alexander was third with 41,461 votes, and Steve Forbes was
fourth with 22,208.
   With the win, Buchanan earned 6 Electoral College delegates; Dole and
Alexander, 4; and Forbes, 2.
   Buchanan's victory in New Hampshire, coming on the heels of a strong
second place in Iowa last week and earlier triumphs in the largely
meaningless Louisiana caucuses and Alaskan straw poll, has galvanized his
campaign.
   ``We're on fire,'' said Buchanan campaign spokesman Jim Hammond.
   However, the Buchanan camp is under no misconceptions about how difficult
it will be for its candidate to win the nomination. ``The political
establishment will do all it can to block this campaign,'' Hammond said.
   That point was underscored by Zeliff. ``No one is going to give Pat
Buchanan the nomination,'' he said.
   For Bob Dole, it was deja vu.
   He lost the New Hampshire Republican presidential primary yesterday, the
second time in eight years after winning in Iowa in both attempts.
   In 1988, he lost to George Bush largely because then-New Hampshire Gov.
John Sununu supported Bush. This time Dole held the support of the sitting
governor, most of the Legislature and the majority of the congressional
delegation, but he still lost to Buchanan.
   The rash of negative advertising put out by Dole during the campaign's
last weeks, some of its credibility questioned by media ad watch reports, may
have led to the upset. Exit polling done by a coalition of major television
networks revealed that almost 40 
percent of voters yesterday wanted to send a message against that kind of
advertising.
   Dole and New Jersey magazine publisher Forbes were seen as putting out the
most negative ads while Buchanan and Alexander were cited for the least.
While Dole lost his front-runner status in this primary, Forbes' fourth-place
finish - equaling his disappointing showing in Iowa last week - may force him
to rethink his candidacy, despite his protests to the contrary.
   Early in the evening, 2nd District Congressman Charles Bass, a Dole
supporter, made a statement that may have supplied an insight into why his
candidate failed. ``(The voters) may not like Bob Dole very much, but New
Hampshire voters tend to bundle behind the candidate they think is
electable,'' Bass said.
   While the race was extremely close, New Hampshire voters sent a message in
support of the candidate who best addressed their concerns about jobs and
economic stability, not the one who was seen nationally as the most
electable.
   The real winner last night was Alexander, whose strong third-place finish
positioned him well as an alternative to Dole in the primaries and caucuses
to come.
   ``Three weeks ago, Steve Forbes may have won this thing,'' said former
Secretary of Education William Bennett. ``This is a great recognition of
Lamar Alexander.''
   New Hampshire Republican Party Chairman John Stabile credited Alexander's
showing to Forbes' campaign strategy.
   ``When Steve Forbes entered the race, he changed the rules,'' Stabile
said, referring to the vast amount of money the New Jersey publisher threw
into the campaign. ``Lamar Alexander was everyone's second choice and when
the negative advertising kicked in, Dole dropped.''
   The night before the primary, Dole, perhaps realizing that he was in a
tight race for first, stopped short of predicting victory. He said he looking
forward to ``a very friendly verdict.''
   Last night, an obviously disappointed Dole had a different view of New
Hampshire and its voters. ``Now I know why they call this the Granite
State,'' Dole quipped, ``because it's so hard to crack.''
   For the first time, Dole admitted he was in a two-man race for the
nomination, but he did not mention Buchanan by name.
   Many of those voting in yesterday's primary said they made their choice in
the voting booth. It confirmed what pollsters had been saying for weeks
before the vote.
   ``The most striking finding is the underlying volatility that still
characterizes the race,'' University of New Hampshire pollster Kelly Myers
said Monday. ``Even among `most likely' voters, 13 percent remain
undecided.''
   The record 76 percent voter turnout predicted by New Hampshire Secretary
of State Bill Gardner materialized yesterday. While most polls closed at
either 7 or 8 p.m., voting continued long past those times in several
locations because of the long lines of voters showing up at the polls after
work.
   For former New Hampshire Gov. Hugh Gregg, the closeness of yesterday's
primary brought back memories of the 1976 New Hampshire Republican primary,
in which Ronald Reagan beat Gerald Ford, 51 percent to 49 percent. It is an
indication of how seriously New Hampshire voters take their primary, Gregg
said.
   The former governor said he will remember the 1996 primary for two
reasons: first, the amount of time the candidates spent in the state, many of
them having been here for more than a year; and second, the ``density of the
media'' this year.