Portsmouth Herald
RAN 2/19/96 Pg. A1
By Steve Haberman 
Herald Staff
   PORTSMOUTH - Senate Majority Leader Bob Dole said last week that no one
can win the White House without first winning the New Hampshire Republican
primary.
   That statement simply reinforces the importance of tomorrow's race to most
of the eight major candidates remaining in the race.
   For Dole, his credibility as front-runner can either be strengthened or
significantly diminished based on the results of tomorrow's primary. If he
wins, even by a small margin, he can go on to the next set of primaries, the
Yankee primaries involving the 
remainder of the New England states on March 5, clearly established as the
man to beat.
   If he comes in any lower than first, it could be a repeat of the disaster
he suffered in 1988 when, after winning the Iowa caucuses, he was defeated by
then-Vice President George Bush in New Hampshire and lost credibility as a
viable candidate. With 70 percent of the Republican party's delegates being
chosen before the end of March, 
momentum is critical, and Dole needs all he can get to keep going.
   The candidate with the momentum at this point, however, is political
commentator Pat Buchanan. He needs to finish first or second in New
Hampshire, a state where he mounted a very successful challenge against Bush,
by then president and running for 
re-election, in the 1992 Republican primary. He garnered 37 percent of the
vote in that contest, an amazing showing against an incumbent Republican.
   Failure to do well in New Hampshire will virtually end Buchanan's ability
to raise funds - something he's already having some trouble doing - which
will, in turn, prevent him from mounting a viable campaign in the larger
states with primaries still to come.
   Former Tennessee Gov. Lamar Alexander - also having fund-raising problems
- needs to come in among the top three in New Hampshire to continue to be
seen as a realistic alternative to Dole. Ultimately, the contest could come
down to a face-off between Alexander and Dole, as the former governor has
said, but it will take at least a 
third-place finish here for that to happen.
   For New Jersey magazine publisher Steve Forbes, New Hampshire is a
make-or-break situation. Since his fourth-place Iowa showing, Forbes has been
touting his ``four-three-two-one'' strategy; taking fourth in Iowa, third in
New Hampshire, second in the New England primaries on March 5, and coming in
first on Super Tuesday, when most convention delegates will be chosen.
Failure to come in third or 
higher in New Hampshire will virtually end the publisher's presidential
hopes.
   Former Deputy U.S. Ambassador Alan Keyes has nothing to lose and
everything to gain in New Hampshire. With a boost from the Christian right in
Iowa, Keyes came in sixth and can only go up from there.
   While the Christian Coalition was a major factor in Iowa, the best guess
is it will not be as much of a factor in the New Hampshire primary. A larger
factor will be who will get the votes of the social conservatives who backed
the candidacy of Texas Sen. Phil Gramm in Iowa, giving him a fifth place
finish there. Keyes could get at least 
part of that vote, elevating his status as he comes out of New Hampshire.
   Keyes has said he is in the race until the Republican convention, and
because he is running a grass roots campaign with no TV or radio advertising,
money is not an issue. The Keyes backers say the former ambassador is in the
race to get his message of moral decline out, not necessarily to win the
nomination, so his finish in New Hampshire 
is virtually meaningless.
   How he fares in New Hampshire is of prime concern to Indiana Sen. Richard
Lugar. A reasonable finish here could elevate his fund-raising efforts and
credibility going into the March 5 Yankee primaries in New England.
   Lugar has said that he expects to do well on March 5, and that if he
doesn't, he will re-evaluate his presidential run. The New Hampshire primary
could elevate the Indiana senator's expectations after coming in seventh in
Iowa.
   Iowa businessman Morry Taylor has made it clear that if he is not in the
top five in New Hampshire, he is out of the race.
   That would make Taylor the fourth Republican candidate to drop out.
California Gov. Pete Wilson ran a short-lived campaign last fall until the
money he had counted on to continue did not materialize. Pennsylvania Sen.
Arlen Specter also cited money problems when he dropped out in December, and
Gramm decided not to pursue his 
presidential bid after losses in Louisiana and Iowa.
   The last candidate, U.S. Rep. Bob Dornan of California, got barely 130
votes in Iowa and is a virtual non-entity on the primary scene. Unless he
soars somehow into the top three, whatever he does in New Hampshire will make
no difference to his chances for the Republican nomination. They will remain
virtually nil.
   As important as how the individual candidates do, however, is how the
voting in the New Hampshire primary is seen around the country. There have
been death knells sounded by newspapers locally and across the nation over
the importance of New Hampshire's first-in-the-nation primary. Those concerns
are based largely on the meteoric rise of Forbes' popularity here last month
based almost solely on the huge 
amount of money the publisher spent on TV advertising. It raised questions
about whether New Hampshire's tradition of one-on-one candidate
confrontations with voters still exists - and whether it's of any value - in
this electronic media-oriented society.
   How New Hampshire votes tomorrow could either silence those claims or
enhance their credibility.