The Asociated Press   
ran 2/18/96
By MIKE MOKRZYCKI 
Associated Press Writer
   NEW YORK (AP) - Bob Dole and Pat Buchanan were tied for the lead in
   New Hampshire in results released Saturday from six polls of likely
   voters in Tuesday's Republican presidential primary. Lamar Alexander
   also shared the lead in two of the surveys and was close behind in two
   others.
   
   The surveys generally find Dole without significant momentum, up or
   down. Over the past few days Alexander has continued gaining slightly,
   Buchanan at best only marginally.
   
   Steve Forbes has steadily fallen in most of the surveys. He hinted
   Saturday that he might drop out if he finishes fourth in New
   Hampshire.
   
   The two most recent telephone samplings, both done Friday and
   Saturday, suggest little net change in voters' preferences since
   Thursday. That day, allegations arose of a top Buchanan campaign
   aide's ties to white supremacist groups; that night, the GOP hopefuls
   sparred in a debate.
   
   Dole got 25 percent, Alexander 22 percent, Buchanan 21 percent and
   Forbes 12 percent in a new survey of 453 likely New Hampshire GOP
   primary voters by Mason-Dixon Political Media Research for the Concord
   Monitor and WHDH-TV in Boston.
   
   Alexander was up 4 points from a similar Mason-Dixon poll Tuesday and
   Wednesday. The polls' sampling error margin was plus or minus 4
   percentage points.
   
   In the latest CNN-USA Today tracking poll, conducted by the Gallup
   Organization, Dole had 26 percent, Buchanan 25, Alexander 20 and
   Forbes 12.
   
   That survey of 665 likely voters, with an error margin of plus or
   minus 4 points, also reflected no significant changes since Thursday.
   But since the last CNN-USA Today New Hampshire polling before the Iowa
   caucuses Monday, Forbes has dropped 13 points, Alexander has gained 9
   and Buchanan is up 6.
   
   Buchanan surged in New Hampshire polls after his upset victory Feb. 6
   in Louisiana's limited GOP caucuses, but apparently got less of a
   bounce after finishing a strong second to Dole in Iowa.
   
   Alexander, a respectable third in Iowa, has gained the most in New
   Hampshire tracking polls since then - an average of about 8 percentage
   points. Buchanan is up an average of 6 points, Forbes down 6.
   
   Polls also suggest Buchanan is vulnerable over whether he would be
   viable as the GOP nominee against President Clinton, and as president.
   Yet his support is more committed than any other candidate's.
   
   ABC News polling Thursday and Friday nights found that 44 percent of
   likely New Hampshire primary voters believe Buchanan is too extreme to
   serve effectively as president, a charge Dole stressed late last week.
   And 63 percent said Buchanan can't beat Clinton in the fall.
   
   But the CNN-USA Today poll found that 62 percent of Buchanan's New
   Hampshire backers say they support him strongly, compared with 48
   percent for Dole and 33 percent for Alexander.
   
   Tracking polls usually average the results from the last two or three
   nights' surveys, with overall samples of 500 to 600 voters and 4- to
   5-point error. Results can vary because of differences in how the
   polls are done, such as in question wording.
   
   Other tracking poll results released Saturday, and statistically
   significant changes since the last polling completed before the Iowa
   caucuses:
   
   - ABC (Thursday and Friday nights): Dole 29, Buchanan 25, Alexander
   17, Forbes 13. Forbes down 10 points over the week.
   
   - Boston Globe-WBZ-TV (Friday night only, 400 likely voters, by KRC
   Communications and Research): Dole 25, Buchanan 22, Alexander 18,
   Forbes 13. Alexander up 13 points since Iowa, Forbes down 7, Buchanan
   up 6.
   
   - New York Post-WNYW-TV (Wednesday through Friday nights, by the Zogby
   Group): Buchanan 22, Dole 21, Alexander 20, Forbes 12. Alexander up 11
   points, Forbes down 7 since last Sunday.
   
   - American Research Group, Manchester, N.H. (Wednesday through Friday;
   bulletin board service for campaigns): Buchanan 27, Dole 23, Forbes
   17, Alexander 12. Buchanan up 8 points last week.
   
   Non-tracking polls conducted last week by the University of New
   Hampshire and Dartmouth College also found Dole and Buchanan tied for
   the lead, with Alexander close behind.
   
   AP-DS-02-17-96 2044EST
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