Portsmouth Herald
RAN 2/11/96, Pg C1
By Steve Haberman 
Herald Staff
   People and politicians alike are bemoaning the emphasis on the use of the
electronic media to get candidate messages out this year, but that emphasis
really began during the 1992 presidential primary season.
   However, rather than the plethora of 30-second, negative television ads
New Hampshire voters are seeing this year, in 1992 the media emphasis was on
televised debates. There were a record seven of them during that primary
season.
   And while it is only really a primary race on the Republican side this
year, in the previous primary there were important contests in both political
parties. That despite the fact that Republicans had an incumbent running.
   Political commentator Patrick Buchanan, who is again a serious contender
after his upset victory over Texas Sen. Phil Gramm in the Louisiana
Republican caucus this past week, went after incumbent President George Bush.
The issue was Bush's ``Read my lips'' promise not to raise taxes during the
1988 campaign in which he defeated 
Kansas Sen. Bob Dole. Bush wound up raising taxes in 1990, with Dole's
support.
   Unlike this year in which Republican candidates were having a tough time
coming up with an issue to excite voters right up until the time New Jersey
publisher Steve Forbes spent millions to make ``flat tax'' a household
phrase, the issue on everyone's mind in 1992 was the economy. With
unemployment at near record levels, bankruptcies at an all-time high, and
banks failing all across the state, voters were looking for a candidate who
offered a way out. 

Failed policy
   Part of the reason Bush had such a hard time against Buchanan in New
Hampshire was the perceived failure of the president's economic policy. In
his first primary campaign visit to the state late in 1991, Bush admitted the
New Hampshire economy was in ``free fall.''
   The president's much publicized visit to a grocery store and his expressed
amazement at the automatic checkout machines, reinforced the public
impression that Bush was out of touch with the economic pain the state's
citizens were in. It gave Buchanan the opening he needed to split the
Republican Party and garner over 37 percent of the primary vote in New
Hampshire.
   Buchanan's strong showing as an arch-conservative was the beginning of the
Republican Party's swing to the right which is even more in evidence in this
year's primary.
   Over on the Democratic side, former Massachusetts Sen. Paul Tsongas was
separating himself from the rest of the pack, which initially included
Arkansas Gov. Bill Clinton, Nebraska Sen. Bob Kerry, former California Gov.
Jerry Brown, New York Gov. Mario Cuomo, consumer advocate Ralph Nader, and
Iowa Sen. Tom Harkin. Tsongas 
argued that rebuilding the country's manufacturing base was the answer to its
economy problems, and that message played well in New Hampshire which was, at
the time, losing what little manufacturing it had left. Tsongas wins
   Tsongas ended up winning the 1992 primary, garnering 33 percent of the
vote, but later dropped out of the race for the Democratic nomination citing
money problems. Media preoccupation with Tsongas' bout with cancer years
earlier also fueled his desire to drop out.
   In 1992, the entire presidential selection process led by New Hampshire
was different. It allowed Clinton, who dubbed himself the ``Comeback Kid'' as
a result of his solid second place finish in the prestigious Granite State
primary, to consolidate his forces, 
organize in other, larger states in which primaries would not take place
until June, and pull out a victory.
   This year, the major primaries are condensed into a period lasting just
over a month. Candidates who do not come, as Buchanan said, ``roaring out of
New Hampshire,'' may have a difficult time getting enough delegates to win
the nomination on the first or second ballot. It could throw the Republican
National Convention, scheduled to take 
place in August in San Diego, into a free-for-all.
   While it was a different time, with different rules and many different
players, the 1996 primary echoes many of the themes and situations that first
occurred in 1992. Early dropouts
   For example, in both primaries individuals who were seen as potential
front-runners chose not to participate in the process to the end. In December
of 1991, New York Gov. Mario Cuomo withdrew from the Democratic primary
saying he saw his role as governor as requiring the majority of his effort.
Despite that withdrawal, Cuomo still received almost 4 percent of the vote in
the 1992 primary.
   Late last year, former Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman, Gen. Colin Powell,
announced he would not seek the Republican nomination. Powell, as had Cuomo
four years earlier, had a good deal of popular support prior to the
announcement.
   Another similarity between the primaries is the early withdrawal of
sitting governors because of money problems. In 1992, it was Virginia Gov.
Douglas Wilder, a Democrat, and the first black to be elected governor, who
reassessed his presidential bid when his 
fund-raising lagged. In the 1996 campaign it was California Gov. Pete Wilson,
a Republican, who decided to back out of the race when the money he had
thought would come his way didn't materialize.
   In the 1992 primary campaign the character of Gov. Bill Clinton became an
issue among his Democratic opponents, and in 1996, President Bill Clinton's
character is again being challenged, this time by those seeking the
Republican nomination. Character issue
   It was while Clinton was campaigning here in New Hampshire in 1992 that
news about his alleged affair with Gennifer Flowers first came to light. It
forced Clinton to appear with his wife on national television to address the
issue.
   This year, it is the character of Hillary Rodham Clinton, and the
involvement of both the Clintons in the Whitewater real estate deal that is
being questioned. The president has also been accused of improper behavior
with another woman, Paula Jones, an Arkansas state employee.
   Whatever the year, it appears New Hampshire remains the proving ground for
presidential contenders. It is here they develop the strategies and hone
their focus on the issues they hope will take them to the White House.
   Much has been said recently about how big money is buying the New
Hampshire primary this year, and about it being the last time the rest of the
nation will look toward New Hampshire in making its decision on who will lead
it.
   However, New Hampshire remains the first true test of potential candidates
and, as such, will, at least once every four years, maintain a firm grasp on
both the national imagination and the race for the White House.