Concord Monitor
RAN 2/10
Monitor Staff
AS Iowans troop to party caucuses tonight, the process of winnowing out the 
Republican candidates begins. The meteoric rise of Steve Forbes and the large 
numbers of undecideds in Iowa and New Hampshire polls make it a tough call.
Phil Gramm is probably right: If he doesn't place at least third in Iowa, his 
campaign is through.
As the weekend began, he faced an uphill fight. After a year of campaigning in 
Iowa and New Hampshire, he is still in single digits in both, ranking fourth or 
fifth.
In a way, Senator Gramm has created his predicament. He started out with the 
biggest war chest of any candidate, some $20 million, but it hasn't bought him 
much. He engineered an earlier-than-Iowa caucus in Louisiana, predicted he 
would win it, and watched it backfire. Meanwhile, he made a lot of enemies in 
Des Moines. He tried to engineer an earlier-than-New-Hampshire primary in 
Arizona, thereby getting off on the wrong foot in the Vote-First-or-Die state. 
But his biggest problem is he just doesn't come across well to the voters.
Pat Buchanan's religion was an asset in the Bayou, where French Cajuns turned 
out for him in droves. Franco-Americans in New Hampshire will likely do the 
same, and he could take the "third ticket" in Iowa.
Lamar Alexander might break out of single digits if moderates tire of the 
vicious donnybrook between Forbes and Sen. Bob Dole. Alexander's been 
campaigning hard and advertising for months, but his ads until recently have 
lacked a solid message. Voters appear to think of him as a nice guy, but don't 
really associate him with an issue.
Forbes is tapping voters' still widespread anti-Washington sentiment. Political 
insiders say he didn't expect to be doing so well so early and wonder if he 
peaked too soon.
It's not clear whether money can buy the kind of organization that gets out the 
vote ­ the only poll that counts.
Dole remains the favorite of conventional wisdom. His Senate duties have kept 
him off the campaign trail until now, but he is a tough campaigner, has a 
strong organization,  and broad, if not deep, appeal.
The choices are there: Now Republicans and like-minded independents must do 
their civic duty and vote.
The large numbers of undecideds in Iowa and New Hampshire polls make it a tough 
call.
(Copyright 1996, The Christian Science Publishing Society. Used by permission.)