The Christian Science Monitor
Field of GOP Contenders Still Caught
In 'Doledrums'
By Peter Grier, Staff writer of The Christian Science Monitor,01/10/96
> WITH crunch time in the contest for the Republican presidential nomination only
> weeks away, the also-rans which means everybody but Sen. Bob Dole are
> generally looking a little desperate.
> They've spent millions on ads and picked at countless banquet dinners. They've
> slogged through mountains of New Hampshire snow, and visited more Iowa pig
> farms than they ever dreamed could exist. Their progress so far: not much.
> Majority leader Dole of Kansas continues to breeze along with a 40-point lead
> in the polls. No other candidate has even emerged as a clear second-place
> challenger.
> Politics is a volatile enterprise, and Sen. Phil Gramm of Texas, former Gov.
> Lamar Alexander of Tennessee, or even publisher Steve Forbes could still
> suddenly bolt from the pack and nip at Dole's heels. But they need to make
> their move soon, as the Iowa caucuses are on Feb. 12, and the New Hampshire
> primary is Feb. 20. Any candidate who performs poorly in these contests risks
> becoming a minor footnote to history.
> This year, the GOP delegate selection process "is front-loaded so much," says
> James Pfiffner, professor of government at George Mason University. "You need
> to make headway fast."
> Not that the pack doesn't recognize its plight. In recent weeks, a number of
> second-tier candidates have begun harshly attacking Dole, in a next-to-last
> ditch effort to bring his poll numbers down before it's too late.
> Millionaire magazine owner Steve Forbes has been a leader of the pile-on-Dole
> bunch. His TV ads depicting the Senate majority leader as a Washington insider
> who is not a true GOP conservative have helped vault him into a distant second
> in the race, in some polls. Mr. Forbes's promotion of a flat tax in tax-averse
> New Hampshire may be the largest reason for his movement, however along with
> the fact that he is spending millions of his own money to spread his message.
> Sen. Phil Gramm of Texas, whose campaign is struggling to gain traction as it
> heads into the race's opening events, is the most recent and most vociferous of
> Dole's attackers.
> His main theme is that in recent budget negotiations Sen. Dole has proved too
> eager for compromise and too quick to cave to President Clinton's positions. A
> new Gramm TV commercial accuses Dole of "abandoning House Republicans" in
> Washington's budget wars; it also raises the prospect that Dole may be
> vulnerable to defeat by Clinton in November.
> Even former Tennessee Gov. Lamar Alexander, the self-described "turtle in a
> flannel shirt" who counts on creeping up slowly in the polls, has started
> slinging a little mud. In a recent speech to a conservative group in
> Washington, Mr. Alexander said Dole would almost certainly lose to Clinton
> and that he was the wrong generation (read "too old") to lead the country,
> besides.
> One problem with this going-negative strategy is that Dole's role in recent
> budget talks appears to have boosted his standing in the country at large, and
> against Mr. Clinton in particular. A recent USA Today/CNN poll found Dole
> leading Clinton 49 percent to 46 percent. Three weeks ago a similar poll had
> found Dole almost 10 points behind.
> "The biggest threat to Dole's nomination has been the fact that he looked like
> a loser against Clinton. What he had to do was moderate his positions to send
> his poll numbers up, and to a certain extent he's done that," notes Stephen
> Wayne, a Georgetown University professor and author of a recent book about the
> political road to the White House.
> Initially, the president was strengthened by the budget impasse, which allowed
> him to position himself as the defender of Medicare and Medicaid. But the
> moment the shutdown ended and Clinton walked into a room to negotiate further,
> more people perceived him as part of the problem and his poll numbers dipped,
> according to Mr. Wayne.
> Not that today's Dole vs. Clinton polls are anything other than the flimsiest
> of indicators about what will happen in November. Professor Wayne says,
> somewhat jokingly, that Clinton's chances for reelection may actually be tied
> to how well the United States teams perform in the coming Olympics. "If we lose
> to countries we've never heard of, voters will be going, 'What's wrong with
> America?' " says Wayne. "Clinton better root hard for our team."
> IF the budget standoff continues, both Clinton and the eventual Republican
> nominee may be hurt. "It would help a third-party candidate, potentially,"
> judges Claiborne Darden Jr., a Georgia-based political pollster.
> One interesting aspect of this political season, after all, has been the way
> the public's interest in candidates from outside the big parties has risen and
> fallen. When retired Gen. Colin Powell declined to enter politics, many were
> disappointed but by the same token, Ross Perot's new Reform Party has
> struggled to get the signatures it needs to list itself on the ballot in many
> states. Most recently, it fell just short of making its signature goal in Maine.
> Perhaps by delivering Congress into the control of Republicans, US voters have
> slated their thirst for large political change. One hint that further political
> revolution may not be in the cards: In off-year 1995 voting, Virginia voters
> decided to keep control of their state legislature in Democratic hands, despite
> pleas from GOP Gov. George Allen that they build on the national Republican
> gains.
> (Copyright 1996, The Christian Science Publishing Society. Used by permission.)
>